Filed under: Connections, General Musings, Humor, Music, NPR, Science Fiction, Society, Writing stuff | Tags: Alwyn, blogging, Darrell Scott, Fat Tire, humor, jim downey, Lake of the Ozarks, music, New Belgium, NPR, Science Fiction, St. Cybi's Well, Tim O'Brien, travel, writing
At about 7:45 in this interview:
NPR: “I wonder: your original CD together Realtime is so beloved by your fans, does that make you just a tad nervous about how this much-anticipated follow-up might be received? Or do you just block that stuff out?”
O’Brien: “Ah, you know, I’m gettin’ over that.”
NPR: “But not yet? You’re still working on it?”
* * * * * * *
It was a hard week. He may have been only a dog, but his absence was entirely too distracting.
* * * * * * *
The other night I played supportive spouse and accompanied my Good Lady Wife to a professional meeting she had at the Lake of the Ozarks.
The Lake (as people in Missouri almost universally refer to it) is an interesting sort of place, from a purely anthropological perspective. Originally built to help generate electricity, it then became a tourist trap in the 1960s, then evolved into something of a Spring Break party spot for college kids throughout the state. It still has something of that reputation, though it has now branched out a bit into being a general purpose convention/resort area. I’ve written about it previously.
Anyway, like these sorts of meeting things go, the first night there was a cocktail party with an open, but limited selection, bar. I walked up to the bar, nodded to the nice very clean cut young man behind it, asked “Got any Fat Tire? ”
“Sorry, just domestic beer. ”
I blinked, a bit stunned.
He explained further “We don’t have any of those Belgium beers.”
* * * * * * *
At about 7:45 in this interview:
NPR: “I wonder: your original CD together Realtime is so beloved by your fans, does that make you just a tad nervous about how this much-anticipated follow up might be received? Or do you just block that stuff out?”
O’Brien: “Ah, you know, I’m gettin’ over that.”
NPR: “But not yet? You’re still working on it?”
O’Brien:“Well, there is a sort of a fermentation that happens in people’s minds, and I guess it happened in my mind too, that you know, what, can we do that again? Can we go back to that? And then, at some point I just said ‘well, you know, if we don’t try we’ll never do anything together again'”.
Scott: “To me the word is ‘fearless’. Putting it out there, and then, with the right ingredients it’ll probably turn into something edible.”
Something edible, indeed. Back to work.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Astronomy, Bad Astronomy, Brave New World, Fermi's Paradox, NASA, Phil Plait, Predictions, Science, Science Fiction, SETI, Space, tech | Tags: Adam Becker, Bad Astronomy, Communion of Dreams, Drake Equation, Fermi's Paradox, jim downey, Kepler mission, NASA, New Scientitst, Phil Plait, predictions, science, Science Fiction, space
How many Earth-like planets are there in our galaxy? Ones which are reasonably like ours, in terms of size, density, and location relative to their sun’s ‘habitable zone’? That’s one of the basic components of the Drake Equation, and until fairly recently all estimates were little more than speculation.
Enter Kepler:
Expanding our view from Kepler’s corner of the galaxy to show more of the Milky Way, the sky fills with billions of potentially life-bearing worlds. If we showed them all, the sky would be a mass of green. So now the green dots illustrate stars that might host such planets, visible with a good pair of binoculars on a dark night here on Earth.
From this perspective, the chances that we’re alone in the cosmos seem very slim, indeed.
The final answer? 15 – 30 billion Earth-like planets.
Of course, that doesn’t include the rest of the Drake equation values. Such as: what percentage of planets which could potentially develop life actually do so? Then what percentage of those planets develop intelligent, technologically sophisticated life? Then what percentage of such intelligent species develop interstellar communication capabilities? Then how long will such a civilization survive, out of the billions of years of history?
The last time I played with the numbers, the best guess from Phil Plait was that there were some 2.5 billion potentially habitable planets. Kepler indicates that number was too conservative, by something on the order of a factor of 10. Running the rest of the equation is largely just an experiment in gut feelings (since we don’t yet have any real data), but what is impressive is that at each stage as solid data has become available, we’ve had to adjust our “best guesstimate” numbers *upwards*. Meaning that the the total number of technologically sophisticated civilizations capable of interstellar communications out there at this point in time also goes up.
From Chapter 4 of Communion of Dreams:
“But in any event, as Arthur Bailey said this morning ‘where are they?’ Where are the aliens? That’s what’s bothering me.”
Where, indeed? I came up with my own answer, explained in Communion.
But I wonder what the real answer will be.
Jim Downey
Filed under: BoingBoing, movies, tech | Tags: animation, BoingBoing, Bot & Dolly, jim downey, technology, video
Unsurprisingly, the last couple of days have been darker than they could have been.
But life goes on. And so I want to share this, via BoingBoing:
Jim Downey
He spoke through tears of 15 years how his dog and him traveled about
The dog up and died, he up and died
And after 20 years he still grieves*
Again, I am reminded that we need to cherish those we love while we have them.
An hour or so ago I lost my buddy. The buddy who went walking with me every morning. The buddy who helped me get through the long years of being a care-giver. The buddy who kept a sharp eye out for trespassing deer, and people, and racoons — especially racoons. The buddy who was always there, always patient, always happy to see me.
Death came quickly and unexpectedly. Yesterday he was fine, had a good day. Last night he seemed a little sluggish, reluctant to go outside, but we figured that was due to the loudness of a nearby music festival. He didn’t like loud noises.
This morning before the sun was up, he was out of his bed, seemed to not be feeling well. I decided to wait until a little later in the morning before I called our vet. Shortly thereafter he started a quick downward spiral, showing all the symptoms of a heart attack. We debated whether we could get him to a veterinary hospital in time to do any good. Instead, he was able to die while I held him, in familiar surroundings.
The cats are being extra affectionate this morning. They know we’re hurting.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Astronomy, BoingBoing, NASA, Science, Space, YouTube | Tags: BoingBoing, jim downey, Lunar Reconissance Orbiter, Moon, NASA, science, space, technology, www youtube
Via BoingBoing, an interesting animation using images from the Lunar Reconissance Orbiter:
Jim Downey
Filed under: Brave New World, Civil Rights, Connections, Constitution, General Musings, Government, Guns, Politics, Preparedness, Privacy, Society, Survival, tech, Terrorism | Tags: 1911, Constitution, FISA, government, jim downey, John Moses Browning, NSA, safety, security, technology
Almost every morning me and the dog go for a walk through the neighborhood. We have a well-established track about a mile long, which allows the dog to check his pmail and me to enjoy the changing seasons. At several points we have to cross from one side of the street to the other, and the dog has long since learned to pause at these junctures and wait for me to give him the go-ahead to cross. He’s a smart guy.
One morning recently a fellow in a big red pickup stopped at one of these crossing points, and kindly waved for me and the dog to go ahead and cross. He was just wanting to help.
* * * * * * *
Did you remember that yesterday was Constitution Day?
* * * * * * *
John Moses Browning was a firearms designer who was born in 1855. His design for the M1911 is considered to this day to be one of the best designs for a handgun, and 1911 variants are still extremely popular. Of the 1911 it has been said “designed by a genius to be used by morons.”
* * * * * * *
FISA court releases opinion upholding NSA phone program
A federal surveillance court on Tuesday released a declassified opinion upholding the constitutionality of the National Security Agency’s sweeping collection of billions of Americans’ phone records for counterterrorism purposes.
The gathering of “all call detail records” from phone companies is justified as long as the government can show that it is relevant to an authorized investigation into known — and, significantly — unknown terrorists who may be in the United States, the Aug. 29 opinion states.
Moreover, the government need only show that there are “reasonable grounds to believe” the records will be relevant to the investigation, a lower burden than required in ordinary criminal investigations. That is justified because the goal is to prevent a terrorist attack, not solve a crime that has already taken place, the court said, affirming the government’s position.
I feel safer already.
* * * * * * *
Almost every morning me and the dog go for a walk through the neighborhood. We have a well-established track about a mile long, which allows the dog to check his pmail and me to enjoy the changing seasons. At several points we have to cross from one side of the street to the other, and the dog has long since learned to pause at these junctures and wait for me to give him the go-ahead to cross. He’s a smart guy.
One morning recently a fellow in a big red pickup stopped at one of these crossing points, and kindly waved for me and the dog to go ahead and cross. He was just wanting to help.
I smiled, nodded, and then motioned him to go ahead. He looked at me for a moment, confused, and waved again for me to cross. I shook my head. Looking a little offended, he shrugged and went ahead through the intersection.
I sighed. The dog looked up at me from his waiting position. I gave him the command to go ahead and cross the street. He did. Like I said, he’s a smart guy.
Smart enough that I don’t want him drawing the lesson that it is OK to walk out in front of pickup trucks, even if their drivers are just wanting to help.
Jim Downey