Filed under: Ballistics, Emergency, Failure, Flu, Government, movies, Politics, Predictions, Preparedness, Society, Writing stuff
Sometimes I wish that I listened to my own advice. For literally decades, my mantra of advice for friends has always been “trust your instincts”. This isn’t just some mystical mumbo-jumbo: a healthy, functioning human brain with a decent amount of education and experience is an amazing data processor, with multiple layers of analysis always going on – and one of them is what your subconsious is considering that kicks up to your conscious awareness as a “gut feeling”. This is the premise behind the book Blink (which I haven’t read, but have read enough about from the author and others to have a decent understanding of).
OK, so what am I going on about now?
[Mild spoilers ahead.]
Just this, when I originally conceived Communion of Dreams, I was writing a book about . . . wait for it . . . the aftermath of an economic collapse. Yeah, the bulk of the book you see now was pretty much the same. But the backstory was more about how a series of severe but not pandemic flu epidemics lead to the collapse of the world economy around 2011 – 2012. And how that collapse would lead to a significant downturn of the human population worldwide, as the carrying capacity of the planet changed. Yes, I still had the extant plot device of the Fire Flu there, but it was to be what Diabolus became in the current version – a terror threat that played off of the memories of what happened a generation previously.
But I was writing this initially around 2000 – the economy was just too good, things seemed like they would be smooth sailing forever. Trying to get people to think about, let alone believe, that an economic collapse could occur was just too difficult. Most people only understand the functioning of the economy when it smacks them in the face – and in spite of the brief downturn following the 9/11 attacks, few people understood what was building on the horizon.
So I went with the current revision of the book.
I should have trusted my instincts. They have only very seldom let me down. Because now there is a growing awareness of the precariousness of our economic situation. Most people are still only thinking that we’re in for some “rough times”, which I gather they think will be a limitation of how many new plasma televisions they can buy. But even that level of understanding would be enough for them to understand what I was (or, rather, would have been) writing about in that earlier version of Communion.
And yes, if you look at what I said above, you can conclude that I think that things are actually going to get a lot worse for a lot longer than what the current awareness believes. It really depends on how foolishly our government and business leaders act – right now I am not optimistic. Will it mean a global economic collapse? As one of my favorite actors in one of my favorite roles said:
Personally, I’d give us one chance in three. More tea anyone?
Jim Downey
(With apologies for having my Monday doom and gloom a day late – it was a busy weekend launching Ballistics by the inch.)
Filed under: 2nd Amendment, Ballistics, Guns, Predictions, Promotion, RKBA
Just a quick note: So far, the response to the ballistics project mentioned in my last post has been very positive. It is already propagating beyond the first couple of contact points, as people cross-post the information. We had almost 500 unique visitors to the site yesterday, some 3,000 page views. So that’s exciting!
More (not firearms related) later.
Jim Downey
Filed under: 2nd Amendment, Art, Ballistics, Guns, Predictions, Press, Privacy, Promotion, RKBA, Science Fiction, Writing stuff
I’ve mentioned several times recently the ballistics project I’ve been involved with over the last year or so. Well, last night we migrated the temporary site over to its own domain, and except for a few tweaks it is pretty much done. Sometime probably this weekend I will post a comment promoting the site to a couple of the forums devoted to discussing firearms, and then all bets are off as to what happens next. (I’d ask anyone reading this to not spread the word to such forums just yet – please let me do that when we’re ready.)
For those who are not interested or knowledgeable about firearms, this whole thing may seem a bit silly. Actually, it is a huge project which will significantly add to the information base available to shooting enthusiasts, and as such will likely gain a great deal of attention both online and in the print media devoted to firearms. I’ve cautioned my two cohorts in the project to be prepared for a bit of a whirlwind of interest. I doubt that it will penetrate into the general media the way that my Paint the Moon art project did, but in the gun world it could very well be just as well known.
And the anticipation of that is kinda fun. As private a person as I am by nature, I enjoy doing things which are interesting or innovative enough to gain some level of attention, to povoke people to think about something in a different way or to expand their awareness of what is possible. I think that is a big part of the reason why I blog, and why I wrote Communion of Dreams – to help shape the world. This new project will do that in a very tangible way.
So, we’ll see what happens. Wish us luck with it.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Ballistics, Flu, Guns, Health, Pandemic, Science, Society
Once again, I have a mild cold. Been fighting it all week. It is depressing how many times I have had such minor bugs over the last couple of years. And an indication that my baseline health stats are compromised still from being a care provider. It’s for the birds.
Actually, new evidence suggests that the cold virus is from the birds:
Common Cold Virus Came From Birds About 200 Years Ago, Study Suggests
ScienceDaily (Nov. 20, 2008) — A virus that causes cold-like symptoms in humans originated in birds and may have crossed the species barrier around 200 years ago, according to a new article published in the Journal of General Virology. Scientists hope their findings will help us understand how potentially deadly viruses emerge in humans.
* * *
Human metapneumovirus is related to the respiratory syncytial virus, measles, mumps and parainfluenza viruses. It infects people of all ages but is most common in children under five. Symptoms include runny nose, cough, sore throat and fever. Infection can also lead to more severe illnesses such as bronchitis and pneumonia, which can result in hospitalisation, especially in infants and immunocompromised patients. HMPV infection is most common during the winter and it is believed to cause up to 10% of respiratory illnesses in children.
“HMPV was first discovered in 2001, but studies have shown that the virus has been circulating in humans for at least 50 years,” said Professor Dr Ron Fouchier from ErasmusMC in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. “HMPV is closely related to Avian metapneumovirus C (AMPV-C), which infects birds. Because of the similarity, scientists have suggested that HMPV emerged from a bird virus that crossed the species barrier to infect humans.”
A cautionary tale, and a reason why a lot of scientists and public health officials keep a close eye on Avian Flu (H5N1) around the world for evidence of a new pandemic.
Me, I plan on taking direct action along with my OTC meds. I’m going to get even today, and enjoy eating a turkey. It’s a simple matter of self defense.
Oh, the other thing that has kept me entirely too busy the last few days has been working on the new ballistics site mentioned earlier this month. There are a couple of remaining tweaks to be done, but it is basically ready to go, complete with an associated blog, all the data, all the downloads, and over seventy pop-up graphs. Sometime this weekend we’ll migrate it over to its own domain, but if you want an advanced look, feel free to poke around.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Jim Downey
Firstly, the alpha test site for Ballistics by the inch I mentioned the other day has some additional components now complete. Specifically, the link to the photo set under DOCUMENTATION is now good, as is the link to the .pdf of all the email exchanges which led to the test. Thanks to everyone who has provided feedback about the site so far – and for those who haven’t done so, please feel free to poke around and either send me an email or leave a comment about your thoughts.
Next, some numbers, just because I got to wondering. We’re now solidly over 12,000 downloads (it’s about 12,300) of Communion of Dreams to date. Just under half of that number were downloaded this year. There have been ups and downs in the number of downloads from week to week and month to month, but it has stayed remarkably consistent – in the 500-600 per month range, with little evidence of dropping off. I find this interesting, and more than a little encouraging – thanks to all who have helped to spread the word about the book!
So, maybe another travelogue later –
Jim Downey
I have mentioned a number of times the big ballistics project that I have been working on with a couple of friends over the past year. And it is finally all coming to fruition. There’s still the actual results database to sort out (we have the data, we just need to decide exactly how we want to have it displayed and searchable on the website). But the basic website is now put together, and because you’re a faithful reader of this blog you get a sneak preview:
Do me a favor and take a look, poke around the site a bit. Not everything is finished – as I said, the results are not yet posted, we still need to put in some links to other resources and whatnot, I still need to build a flickr set of photos from the testing, set up a blog related to the project, et cetera – and just offer some feedback. With a little luck we’re only a week or so away from having the site go ‘live’ under its own domain (already reserved), and I’d like to have this as a shakedown period. Consider this the “alpha test” of the site, to see how it works on a variety of browsers and whatnot. Send comments to me – the contact email on that site is not yet active – and I’ll pass it on to my good lady wife who has done all the drudge work of putting the site together.
Thanks! It’s really exciting to have this project almost complete – it has been a lot of work for all of us, and I want it to launch successfully. Your help at this stage is very appreciated.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Ballistics, Book Conservation, Feedback, Guns, Health, Migraine, Predictions, Promotion, Publishing, Ray Bradbury, Science Fiction, Sleep, Society, Writing stuff
As I have noted, I have been fairly busy of late. And in looking back over the last couple of months, I can see a real change in both my energy level and my ability to focus – it’s no longer the case that I want to nap most of the time. Yeah, I am still going through a detox process, still finding my way back to something akin to normalcy – but there has been a decided improvement. Fewer migraines. More energy. A willingness to take on some additional obligations.
So I had to debate a long time when I was recently contacted by a site wanting to expand their scope and impact. These folks. They were wanting me to do a column every two weeks, more-or-less related to Science Fiction (giving me a lot of latitude to define the scope of the column as I saw fit). They have a lot of good ideas, and seem to have a pretty good handle on where they want to go in the future. And the invitation was a real compliment to me – not only did they say nice things about my writing, but they have a good energy and attitude which is appealing.
But I declined the invitation. Why? Well, to a certain extent it’s like Bradbury says: “You have to know how to accept rejection and reject acceptance.”
I may come to regret this decision. It could possibly have helped my writing career, at least in terms of landing a conventional publishing contract. And I know from writing my newspaper column that the discipline can do good things for me – forcing me to address a specific topic rather than the more general musings I post here and at UTI. But I really do have a lot on my plate right now, and they are all things I want to do well, rather than just get done. Blogging here (which is really quite important to me). Participating at UTI. Crafting this book about being a care provider. Getting the ballistics project website up and running. All the book conservation work waiting for me. Eventually getting to work on St. Cybi’s Well again. And enjoying life. There’s been precious little of that these last few years.
So, I declined. But if you perhaps would be interested in the gig, they have contact info on their homepage.
Jim Downey
Filed under: 2nd Amendment, Alzheimer's, Ballistics, Book Conservation, General Musings, Health, Hospice, Marketing, Predictions, Promotion, Publishing, Sleep, University of Missouri, Writing stuff, YouTube
I took some books back to Special Collections yesterday afternoon. As I was unpacking items, one of the staff members asked how I was doing.
“Pretty well. Been busy.”
She looked at me for a long moment. “You look – rested.”
* * * * * * *
On Wednesday, in response to a friend who asked what I had going on, I sent this email reply:
Need to do some blogging this morning, then get settled into the next batch of books for a client. Print out some invoices. Also need to track down some camera software and get it loaded onto this machine, and finish tweaking things here so I can shift over the last of the data from the old system and send it on its way. Need to work on learning some video editing, and start uploading clips from our ballistics testing project to YouTube. Then I can get going on creating the rest of the content for *that* website. Play with the dog. Should touch base with my collaborator on the Alz book, see where he is on some transcriptions he is working on. And then prep dinner. In other words, mostly routine. Yeah, I lead an odd life.
An odd life, indeed.
But here’s a taste of some of the documentation about the ballistics project that I have been working on:
That’s me wearing the blue flannel overshirt. Man, I’m heavy. I hope video of me now would look better.
* * * * * * *
The chaos continues. Yeah, we’re still in the process of completely re-arranging the house, and of seeing to the distribution of Martha Sr’s things. Looks like there’ll be an estate auction in our future sometime next month. But that’s good – it means that things are moving forward, heading towards some kind of resolution.
As mentioned in passing in the email cited above, I’ve been shifting over to a new computer system I got last week. My old system was starting to lose components, and was becoming increasingly incapable of doing things I need to be able to do. Well, hell, it was 7 years old, and was at least one iteration behind the cutting edge at the time I bought it. Thanks to the help of my good lady wife, this has been a relatively painless transition – though one which has still taken a lot of work and time to see through.
And one more complication, just to keep things interesting: My wife is moving her business practice home. This had been the tentative plan all along, once Martha Sr was gone, and for a variety of reasons it made sense to take this step now. She’ll be able to devote more of her energy to seeing to her mom’s estate, hastening that process. And she’s going to take on the task of shopping my book around agencies and publishers. Now that there have been over 10,000 downloads (actually, over 11,000 and moving towards 12,000), it would seem to be a good time to make a devoted push to getting the thing conventionally published, in spite of the problems in the industry. We’re hoping that she’ll be better able to weather the multiple rejections that it will take, and I’ll have more time and energy for working on the next book (and blogging, and the ballistics project, and – oh, yeah – earning money for a change).
* * * * * * *
She looked at me for a long moment. “You look – rested.”
“Thanks!”
It says something that with all I’ve been doing (as described above has been fairly typical, recently), I look more rested now than I have in years.
Actually, it says a lot.
Jim Downey
Last weekend, when my shooting buddy Steve and I went out to do some pistol work, we were talking after about this and that. I mentioned that I thought I would like to get a flintlock rifle, because I had enjoyed shooting one of his flintlocks on another occasion. Black powder cartridge guns are basically the same as modern smokeless powder guns, though the shock impulse of firing isn’t the same (there is a sharp difference between the quick snap of modern powder and the slower push of BP). The earlier percussion cap weapons are a little different in terms of loading (typically done muzzle-loading style), but have a similar ‘instantaneous ignition’. With a flintlock, there is a notable lag time between the strike of the flint, and the ignition of the powder charge in the gun. Which presents more challenges for shooting the things well – you have to maintain your control and composure longer, waiting for the full ignition to happen and the bullet to be launched at your target.
I’m by no means a ‘master’ of modern guns, but I can handle most of them fairly well. I know how to properly sight in, how to control my breath and gently squeeze the trigger, how to deal with the recoil. I’ve never been particularly interested in the super-accurate competitions, trying to get multiple rounds through a bulls-eye at a 100 or a 1000 yards. Some folks are, but that’s not for me. I’m happy to make tin cans jump – the sort of level of shooting skill one needs for hunting or self-defense.
Shooting a flintlock is a different story – there are more skills needed, and greater perfection of some of the skills I already have. Plus there’s the historical aspect, tied to the founding of this country. So we talked about it some, and I thought that sometime in the not-too distant future I might order in a kit, and build/finish a flintlock rifle myself – looking to Steve for information and guidance, since this is an area in which he is very knowledgeable.
Anyway, yesterday afternoon he needed to swing by to drop off some other stuff, and when he showed up he gave me this: a Mortimer Flintlock .54 caliber rifle (reproduction). Mine isn’t the ‘target’ version pictured there, but from what I can tell the only major difference is the additional peep site mounted behind the lock mechanism. It’s a wonderful, and lovingly used, weapon. He said he thought it would make a nice birthday gift, and get me started flintlocking (‘rock locking’ some call it, since flint is a hunk of rock) until I got a kit I wanted to build. He brought it complete with the necessary lead balls, patches, black powder, horn, et cetera.
I was gobsmacked. A bit bumfuzzled.
Wow.
I have been the recipient of many wonderful gifts, this among them. And it always makes me feel humble to have such friends and loved ones. I don’t like ‘things’ – I’m not an acquisitive sort of person who subscribes to the consumerist philosophy of “he who dies with the most toys, wins”. But a well-made tool (firearms fall into this category, as far as I am concerned), or a piece of art, or even a good meal – these things given out of love and friendship, are more than just ‘things’, and are worth more than a simple dollar sign would indicate. I think a lot of people forget that.
I’m glad my friends and loved ones don’t.
Jim Downey
Communion Of Dreams 