Communion Of Dreams


Curious.

Perhaps it is the drugs, or the economic degree talking, but a curious thought occurred in consideration of a stock-market piece in the Atlantic: are we seeing the first real indication of some kind of self-aware Artificial Intelligence in the millisecond-to-millisecond world of automated stock trading?

OK, probably not. The cynic in me says that someone has just figured out a way to game the system to their advantage, throwing out a lot of confusing chaff to slow down the computer systems of other traders. Here’s an introductory paragraph to explain what this is all about:

It’s thanks to Nanex, the data services firm, that we know what their handiwork looks like at all. In the aftermath of the May 6 “flash crash,” which saw the Dow plunge nearly 1,000 points in just a few minutes, the company spent weeks digging into their market recordings, replaying the day’s trades and trying to understand what happened. Most stock charts show, at best, detail down to the one-minute scale, but Nanex’s data shows much finer slices of time. The company’s software engineer Jeffrey Donovan stared and stared at the data. He began to think that he could see odd patterns emerge from the numbers. He had a hunch that if he plotted the action around a stock sequentially at the millisecond range, he’d find something. When he tried it, he was blown away by the pattern. He called it “The Knife.” This is what he saw:

Followed by a graph showing a clear pattern. Then here’s the bit that tells how this could be an advantage to another trader:

Donovan thinks that the odd algorithms are just a way of introducing noise into the works. Other firms have to deal with that noise, but the originating entity can easily filter it out because they know what they did. Perhaps that gives them an advantage of some milliseconds. In the highly competitive and fast HFT world, where even one’s physical proximity to a stock exchange matters, market players could be looking for any advantage.

But think about this. What a delightful SF explanation it would be to have one of these powerful automated systems (they have to be some of the most powerful and complex computer/software systems on the planet) starting to “wake up” and experiment in manipulating its environment: the world of stock trading. Here’s a bit from the MeFi thread where I came across this:

All of the serious HFT firms these days use “natural language processing”, which means using artificial intelligence to extract profitable information from news streams. People think of this as just headlines but really it’s anything that might contain useful information – these computers have all of the cable news channels supplied to them digitally and use everything they can scrape. Some of the firms even use facial recognition software to determine whether the speakers believe what they’re saying. My friends joke about how Cramer is a goldmine for their algorithms but that the profitable trades rarely match up with his advice.

One of the facts about ‘hard’ AI, as is required for profitable NLP, is that the coders who developed it don’t even understand completely how it works. If they did, it would just be a regular program. What’s even stranger is that they can’t use regular tools, like a debugger, to observe the algorithms’ behavior, because it interferes with the processing and causes different trades to be emitted. In a very real sense, they can’t explain why their robots send the orders they do. They can tell you what data they “trained” it with, and what sorts of data they “feed” it, but they’re inherently unpredictable.

As a result, a lot of programmers at HFT firms spend most of their time trying to keep the software from running away. They create elaborate safeguard systems to form a walled garden around the traders but, exactly like a human trader, the programs know that they make money by being novel, doing things that other traders haven’t thought of. These gatekeeper programs are therefore under constant, hectic development as new algorithms are rolled out. The development pace necessitates that they implement only the most important safeguards, which means that certain types of algorithmic behavior can easily pass through. As has been pointed out by others, these were “quotes” not “trades”, and they were far away from the inside price – therefore not something the risk management software would be necessarily be looking for.

Even better, perhaps such an AI entity was aware enough to realize its position in the larger world stage, and also realize that one way to bring down humanity would be through the kind of economic crash we recently just avoided – something even worse than the Great Depression. How to do it? Well . . .

But already since the May event, Nanex’s monitoring turned up another potentially disastrous situation. On July 16 in a quiet hour before the market opened, suddenly they saw a huge spike in bandwidth. When they looked at the data, they found that 84,000 quotes for each of 300 stocks had been made in under 20 seconds.

“This all happened pre-market when volume is low, but if this kind of burst had come in at a time when we were getting hit hardest, I guarantee it would have caused delays in the [central quotation system],” Donovan said. That, in turn, could have become one of those dominoes that always seem to present themselves whenever there is a catastrophic failure of a complex system.

Think about it.

Curious, indeed.

Jim Downey



Capitulation.
April 29, 2010, 1:38 pm
Filed under: Connections, Feedback, Privacy, Promotion

Sometimes, you just gotta admit that you’ve been defeated, and move on.

No, I’m not talking about my decision to have someone with a tractor come and till my garden this year, rather than doing it myself because of my recent muscle tear (which is actually healing quite well, thanks).

Instead, I’m talking about going on Facebook. Yeah, in spite of their privacy policies and the whole high-school-popularity-competition nonsense, I bit the bullet and signed up. A personal profile in my name, and when I can get a handle on the best way to do it I’ll also set up pages for my business, BBTI, and Communion of Dreams. If you have suggestions or pointers, feel free to drop me a note, leave a comment here, or (gods forbid, I can’t believe I’m saying this) post something to my ‘wall.’ And yes, you’re all invited to be my friend.

Gah.

Jim Downey



Paradigm shifts.

In college (I graduated in 1980) I suffered repeatedly from peptic ulcers. My senior year it seemed that I lived largely on a diet of Maalox (which I came to loathe) and Tagamet, supplemented by Pepto-Bismol when I just couldn’t bring myself to drink any more Maalox. “Everyone knew” that ulcers were caused by stress, which produced an overabundance of gastric acid – technology had allowed for better studies of the production of gastric acid and the mechanism of it eroding stomach/intestinal lining – and there were more than a few occasions when my doctor recommended that I consider some kind of mild tranquilizer to help calm me down. I drank, instead.

Which, frankly, didn’t help my ulcers much. In fact, it just made me worse. My senior year was hell, and I actually got quite sick my final semester. Graduation helped, in that a big part of the stress was removed, and I backed way off of how much I drank, but I still had ulcer problems for the next few months.

But in the fall or winter of that year I developed a pretty nasty case of pneumonia (I’m prone to it), and had to go on a couple of courses of broad-spectrum antibiotics before I beat it.

I didn’t think much about it at the time, but the following year I didn’t have any ulcer problems. In fact, since then, I haven’t had any ulcer problems. It wasn’t until several years later that medical science came to understand why. No, it had nothing to do with me, though I had inadvertently stumbled upon the same thing that researchers came to discover: that stomach ulcers are predominantly caused by a bacteria (H. pylori). And the best treatment is a combination of powerful antibiotics with bismuth subsalicylate, the active ingredient in Pepto-Bismol. Yes, stress can be a factor in the development of an ulcer, but the real culprit is a bacterium. It wasn’t until the 1990s that this came to be the accepted model in the medical community.

This was my first personal, direct experience with how a paradigm shift can make a difference in our lives and health. Had I not gotten lucky with a combination of drugs and Pepto-Bismol, I might have been miserable with ulcers for another dozen years before medical science changed treatment regimens.

Now, I knew about Kuhn’s work – had read him in High School, I think, or at least in college. And his ideas were very influential in the science fiction I read, even my understanding of history (which I have written about before). And all of that plays out in Communion of Dreams, which is largely about a shift in perspective of what it means to be human.

This morning I came across another wonderful case study of this very same phenomenon of paradigm shift changing medical science, and how technology actually played a role in causing a misunderstanding of the mechanism involved, leading to more death and misery until a new paradigm came along:

First, the fact that from the fifteenth century on, it was the rare doctor who acknowledged ignorance about the cause and treatment of the disease. The sickness could be fitted to so many theories of disease – imbalance in vital humors, bad air, acidification of the blood, bacterial infection – that despite the existence of an unambigous cure, there was always a raft of alternative, ineffective treatments. At no point did physicians express doubt about their theories, however ineffective.

The disease? Scurvy. The case study? Robert Falcon Scott’s 1911 expedition to the South Pole. Here’s a bit from the beginning of the article:

Now, I had been taught in school that scurvy had been conquered in 1747, when the Scottish physician James Lind proved in one of the first controlled medical experiments that citrus fruits were an effective cure for the disease. From that point on, we were told, the Royal Navy had required a daily dose of lime juice to be mixed in with sailors’ grog, and scurvy ceased to be a problem on long ocean voyages.

But here was a Royal Navy surgeon in 1911 apparently ignorant of what caused the disease, or how to cure it. Somehow a highly-trained group of scientists at the start of the 20th century knew less about scurvy than the average sea captain in Napoleonic times. Scott left a base abundantly stocked with fresh meat, fruits, apples, and lime juice, and headed out on the ice for five months with no protection against scurvy, all the while confident he was not at risk. What happened?

It’s a long but fascinating article. And it perfectly recounts how technological improvements contributed to a misunderstanding of scurvy. One more passage from the article:

Third, how technological progress in one area can lead to surprising regressions. I mentioned how the advent of steam travel made it possible to accidentaly replace an effective antiscorbutic with an ineffective one. An even starker example was the rash of cases of infantile scurvy that afflicted upper class families in the late 19th century. This outbreak was the direct result of another technological development, the pasteurization of cow’s milk. The procedure made milk vastly safer for infants to drink, but also destroyed vitamin C. For poorer children, who tended to be breast-fed and quickly weaned onto adult foods, this was not an issue, but the wealthy infants fed a special diet of cooked cereals and milk were at grave risk. It took several years for infant scurvy, at first called “Barlow’s disease”, to be properly identified. At that point, doctors were caught between two fires. They could recommend that parents not boil their milk, and expose the children to bacterial infection, or they could insist on pasteurization at the risk of scurvy. The prevaling theory of scurvy as bacterial poisoning clouded the issue further, so that it took time to arrive at the right solution – supplementing the diet with onion juice or cooked potato.

Read it.

Jim Downey



“My Father’s Gun”.
December 11, 2009, 11:55 am
Filed under: Connections, Guns, Health, Privacy, Society, Survival, Violence, Writing stuff

I just sent the following email:

University City Chief of Police
Colonel Charles Adams
6801 Delmar Blvd.
University City, MO 63130

Colonel Adams,

40 years ago, in the early hours of 12 December, my father, Wilbert James Downey, died while performing his duties as a patrolman for the University City Police Department.

Your department, and the people of University City, have always graciously recognized his sacrifice, and honored his memory. This has always been a comfort to my family, and to myself, though I have not participated in any of the remembrances in recent years.

This morning I would like to ask your assistance in doing some research for a book about my father. I need some information which is not readily available, but it may be in your archives or in the collective memory of the department.

I would like to know about my father’s service revolver. I know that it was a .38 special, probably a S & W Model 15. If you could confirm this, or provide any additional information, I would greatly appreciate it. Is it possible that a serial number was recorded? Was the revolver retained by the department, or was it considered personal property?

Any help in this matter would be most welcome. If there is someone else there at the department with whom it would be better for me to correspond, please let me know.

Thank you for your time, and your service to the community –

James Downey

And with that, I have begun a new project, a new journey, likely a new book.

I’ve mentioned before that this time of year always leaves me feeling . . . nachdenklich. This year the intensity of the rumination has been greater than before. I’m not entirely sure why. Regardless, the feeling is there, and it has been growing on me all this year.

So, I’ve decided to embark on a quest to find my father’s gun. Specifically, his service revolver mentioned above. And through this, to find him.

Because the gun itself doesn’t really matter. What does matter is the journey. As I told my sister in an email this morning:

I too had been feeling that this year was somehow more ‘significant’, and it has had a greater impact on me than in most past years. In fact, this morning I was going to draft a letter/email to Chief Adams at the U City PD, and thereby initiate something I had been thinking about for the last couple of years: writing a book about dad through the mechanism of trying to track down his service revolver (working title idea “My Father’s Gun”). My intent is to explore a lot of the things I have thought about and wondered about over the last 40 years, as a way of understanding him and the lives he touched. I was planning on incorporating all my correspondence and such available resources as I can find – which will also mean my finally coming to terms with things I have deliberately tried to avoid (I think for good reason).

I’ve invited her to join me on this journey (we get along very well, and could work together on such a project easily), adding her perspective along the way. We’ll see.

Just thought I would share this.

Jim Downey

Update: I did hear back from the Chief’s office, have the serial number now, and have confirmed by it that was a Model 10 which was manufactured in early 1961. This fits perfectly with about the time my dad started on the force. JD



Bump.

The term “bump” has been used online for at least the last couple of years, particularly on larger group blogs when someone who administers the site wants a specific post or comment to get more attention or not be lost in the flow of information.

Curious now that there’s an emerging use of the term pertaining to another aspect of information: “bumping” technological tools to share specific information. From a column by a friend sent me:

From University of Chicago, a bump joins networking grind

It is fitting that University of Chicago business school students would develop an iPhone app that works by bump.

After all, it was a former U. of C. professor, President Barack Obama, who helped to popularize the fist bump.

The new iPhone app, called Bump, transfers data from one iPhone to another simply by bumping. When two people holding iPhones bump hands, detailed contact information or just certain data, such as a phone number, can be shared.

I bumped an iPhone with an iPod Touch and contact information was transferred between the devices in about 5 seconds. Both gadgets asked for confirmation.

As my friend said in the email:

Not quite as handy as the handshake in your book, but on its way.

Well on it’s way, indeed. For those who don’t recall (or who haven’t yet read the book), the standard tech people use for my novel contains a palm ‘key’ which is linked to a worn (actually, embedded) personal computer. Among other things, this key allows people to just shake hands and exchange business-card type information, which is automatically filed away for reference by your personal expert system.

As I’ve said before, it’s always fun to see the technology developing as I predict in Communion.

Jim Downey



Here’s an idea . . .

…which I haven’t heard of previously, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if it has already been the basis of an SF short or novel: what if the source of some giant computer/internet worm (say, Conficker or similar) was just someone’s effort to create an actual AI? Alternatively, what if some embryonic AI which already exists was creating these things in order to increase its own level of ability/sentience? The latter is somewhat similar to what I did with Seth in Communion of Dreams, through I used an entirely different mechanism.

Anyway, just an idea. I get these things all the time, and just happened to be sitting in front of the computer when I did so this time.

Jim Downey



No surprise: it’s not that simple.

I’ve written previously about synesthesia, and most recently said this:

The implication is that there is a great deal more flexibility – or ‘plasticity’ – in the structure of the brain than had been previously understood.

Well, yeah. Just consider how someone who has been blind since birth will have heightened awareness of other senses.  Some have argued that this is simply a matter of such a person learning to make the greatest use of the senses they have.  But others have suspected that they actually learn to use those structures in the brain normally associated with visual processing to boost the ability to process other sensory data.  And that’s what the above research shows.

OK, two things.  One, this is why I have speculated in Communion of Dreams that synesthesia is more than just the confusion of sensory input – it is using our existing senses to construct not a simple linear view of the world, but a matrix in three dimensions (with the five senses on each axis of such a ‘cube’ structure).  In other words, synesthesia is more akin to a meta-cognitive function.  That is why (as I mentioned a few days ago) the use of accelerator drugs in the novel allows users to take a step-up in cognition and creativity, though at the cost of burning up the brain’s available store of neurotransmitters.

And now there is more evidence that synesthesia is a more complex matter than researchers had previously understood:

Seeing color in sounds has genetic link

Now, Asher and colleagues in the United Kingdom have done what they say is the first genetic analysis of synesthesia. Their findings are published this week in the American Journal of Human Genetics.

Researchers collected DNA from 196 people from 43 families in which there were multiple members with synesthesia. They looked exclusively at auditory-visual synesthesia, the kind where sound triggers color, which is easier to diagnose than other possible forms.

They expected to find a single gene responsible for synesthesia, but they found that the condition was linked to regions on chromosomes 2, 5, 6, and 12 — four distinct areas instead of one.

“It means that the genetics of synesthesia are much more complex than we thought,” Asher said.

No surprise there.  The article goes on to discuss what may be happening physiologically – researchers are still trying to construct a model of how synesthesia actually happens in the brain, and still tend to see it as something which “goes wrong” developmentally.  The supposition, according to the CNN article, is that there is a failure of a necessary “pruning” of cross-wiring in the young brain.

But what if it is instead a meta-cognitive function, something which is emerging as part of ongoing evolution of the human brain?  In other words, an enhancement of our current ability to think and remember, by allowing our brains a bit more complexity in the neural connections?

Hmm.

Jim Downey



Hmm.
January 11, 2009, 9:50 am
Filed under: Connections, General Musings, tech

A good friend of mine lives out in the wilds of Iowa.  Beautiful country,  but a bit isolated.  Certainly not off the grid, but far enough from any major population centers that there’s about a 15 x 23 foot patch in one corner of his farm where you can almost get cell phone reception.  On a good day.  If you’re lucky.

This morning he was telling me that they just switched their internet companies, bundling together their phone and cable as well.  Typical set-up, which will do nothing for their cell phone reception.

Or could it?

I got to thinking while I was writing him, and it occured to me that there is probably no reason that you couldn’t set up a simple local cell node connected to your computer.  All it would need to do is cover a small area around your home, with connectivity over your internet connection to your general cell provider.  All the technology exists to do this, from a WiFi hookup to VOIP.  And it could provide much more reliable cell coverage for millions of people in remote areas, without the need for expanding the cell network into areas with sparse populations.

Hmm.

Does anything like this exist already?  Or have I just come up with a simple cell solution for a lot of rural people?

Jim Downey



Learning the Cost, Part II

As I mentioned the other day, I’ve been very busy getting ready for our trip to Patagonia, including some long hours to wrap up work for clients before I leave.

But I took some time out for a follow-up visit to my doctor.  A good thing that I did.

* * * * * * *

As I sat waiting in the exam room for my doctor to come in, I looked around.  All the usual stuff.  But high up on top of a cabinet, only barely visible from where I sat on the exam table, was a wooden box.  Some light-colored wood, perhaps pine or a light oak.  It was a bit battered, but in decent shape, about the size of loaf of bread.  Not one of those long loafs of sandwich bread – a short loaf, of something like rye or pumpernickel.

One the end of the box bore a large seal, the sort of thing which was popular in the late 19th century.  Big outer ring, inner motif of a six-pointed star, cross-hatched on half of each star arm to indicate motion or something.  Center of the star had three initials: JBL.  Around the ring was more information: “TYRELLS HYGIENIC INST.  NEW YORK CITY U.S.A.  PATENT JANUARY, 1894 AUGUST, 1897 JUNE 1903.” Outside the ring, one in each upper corner, and one below in the center were three words: “JOY.  BEAUTY.  LIFE.”

You can get some idea of what this looked like from this image.  So far, I have been unable to find an image online of the box I saw.

* * * * * * *

I’d gone in first part of the week to have blood drawn, for tests my doctor wanted to run.  I still have the bruise where the aide who drew the blood went a bit too deep and punctured the back of my vein.

My doctor looked over the lab results, looked up at me.  “Not too bad.  LDL is a bit high, so is your HDL, which helps. Fasting blood sugar also a bit high, but not bad.  I think we should give both of those a chance to settle out some more, as you continue to get diet and exercise back completely under your control.  The rest all looks pretty good – liver & kidney function, et cetera.  Nothing to be too worried about.”

She handed over the sheaf of papers to me.  “But I want to do something more about your blood pressure.  It is still dangerously high, though you seem to have made some real progress with the beta blocker.”

Yeah, I had – I’d been testing it.  And it was down 50 points systolic, 20 points diastolic.  About halfway to where it should be.

“Would you be willing to try something else?  Another drug?”

Echo of the first conversation we had on the topic.  “What did you have in mind?”

Calcium channel blocker,” she said.  “We could still increase the dosage of the beta blocker you’re taking, because you’re on the low end of that.  But I would like to see how your system responds to this additional drug, also at a minimal dosage.  Then we can tweak dosage levels, if we need to.”

Another good call.  “Sure, let’s try it.”

* * * * * * *

My doctor returned with my prescriptions.  “Do you have any other questions?”

I pointed at the box up on top of the cabinet.  “What’s the story behind that?”

Caught off-guard, she looked at the box, confused.

“I mean, what was in there?  Is there a particular reason you have it?”

“No, not really.  Nothing’s in there.  I just came across it at an antique shop some years ago.”  She looked at me.  “Why?”

“There was an author in the 60s & 70s who wrote a lot of stuff I like.  Philip K. Dick.  He had a lot of health issues, and I can imagine him sitting in a room not unlike this one, looking at some variation of a box like that.”  I got down off the exam table.  “One of his most important books was made into the movie Blade Runner in the early 1980s.  In that movie one of the major characters goes by the name Tyrell, and he has a connection to . . . um, the medical industry.  I just thought it an interesting coincidence.”

“Oh.”  She was completely lost.  I’ve worked with doctors enough to know that they do not like this feeling.  “Well, we’ll see you after your trip, check out how the new meds are working, OK?”

“Sure.”

Jim Downey



Flexibility.

[This post contains mild spoilers about Communion of Dreams.]

One of the difficulties facing computer engineers/scientists with developing expert systems and true Artificial Intelligence is the paradigm they use.  Simply, working from structures analogous to the human brain, there has been a tendency to isolate functions and have them work independently.  Even in modern computer science such things as adaptive neural networks are understood to analogous to biological neural networks in the brain, which serve a specific function:

Biological neural networks are made up of real biological neurons that are connected or functionally-related in the peripheral nervous system or the central nervous system. In the field of neuroscience, they are often identified as groups of neurons that perform a specific physiological function in laboratory analysis.

But what if the neuroscience on which these theories are based has been wrong?

Here’s the basics of what was Neuroscience 101: The auditory system records sound, while the visual system focuses, well, on the visuals, and never do they meet. Instead, a “higher cognitive” producer, like the brain’s superior colliculus, uses these separate inputs to create our cinematic experiences.

The textbook rewrite: The brain can, if it must, directly use sound to see and light to hear.

* * *

Researchers trained monkeys to locate a light flashed on a screen. When the light was very bright, they easily found it; when it was dim, it took a long time. But if a dim light made a brief sound, the monkeys found it in no time – too quickly, in fact, than can be explained by the old theories.

Recordings from 49 neurons responsible for the earliest stages of visual processing, researchers found activation that mirrored the behavior. That is, when the sound was played, the neurons reacted as if there had been a stronger light, at a speed that can only be explained by a direct connection between the ear and eye brain regions, said researcher Ye Wang of the University of Texas in Houston.

The implication is that there is a great deal more flexibility – or ‘plasticity’ – in the structure of the brain than had been previously understood.

Well, yeah. Just consider how someone who has been blind since birth will have heightened awareness of other senses.  Some have argued that this is simply a matter of such a person learning to make the greatest use of the senses they have.  But others have suspected that they actually learn to use those structures in the brain normally associated with visual processing to boost the ability to process other sensory data.  And that’s what the above research shows.

OK, two things.  One, this is why I have speculated in Communion of Dreams that synesthesia is more than just the confusion of sensory input – it is using our existing senses to construct not a simple linear view of the world, but a matrix in three dimensions (with the five senses on each axis of such a ‘cube’ structure).  In other words, synesthesia is more akin to a meta-cognitive function.  That is why (as I mentioned a few days ago) the use of accelerator drugs in the novel allows users to take a step-up in cognition and creativity, though at the cost of burning up the brain’s available store of neurotransmitters.

And two, this is also why I created the ‘tholin gel’ found on Titan to be a superior material as the basis of computers, and even specify that the threshold limit for a gel burr in such use is about the size of the human brain.  Why?  Well, because such a superconducting superfluid would not function as a simple neural network – rather, the entire burr of gel would function as a single structure, with enormous flexibility and plasticity.  In other words, much more like the way the human brain functions as is now coming to be understood.

So, perhaps in letting go of the inaccurate model for the way the brain works, we’ll take a big step closer to creating true artificial intelligence.  Like in my book.  It pays to be flexible, in our theories, in our thinking, and in how we see the world.

Jim Downey

Hat tip to ML for the news link.




Design a site like this with WordPress.com
Get started