Filed under: Failure, General Musings, Government, ISS, NASA, NYT, Predictions, Science, Space, tech
Here’s a prediction: more people are going to die in space.
Not exactly newsworthy, is it? When you engage in the sort of dangerous enterprise like spacetravel (or even just getting there), the learning curve is steep and marked with blood. I can’t see any other way around it – as carefully designed and tested as every component is, there are still going to be failures, and some of those failures are going to mean that good men and women die. I know it. You know it. The astronauts certainly know it.
But just as today’s cars and aircraft are *thousands* of times safer than early cars and airplanes were, so will spacecraft become safer through use and experimentation. Via today’s NYT, the opening paragraphs of this article by James Oberg seems to understand how this learning process works:
4 October 2007—Aboard the International Space Station, the three Russian computers that control the station’s orientation have been happily humming away now for several weeks. And that’s proof that the crisis in June that crippled the ISS and bloodied the U.S.-Russian partnership that supports it, has been solved.
But the technological—and diplomatic—lessons of that crisis need to be fully understood and appreciated. Because if the failure had occurred on the way to Mars, say, it probably would have been fatal, and it will likely be the same international partnership that builds the hardware for a future Mars mission.
The critical computer systems, it turned out, had been designed, built, and operated incorrectly—and the failure was inevitable. Only being so relatively close to Earth, in range of resupply and support missions, saved the spacecraft from catastrophe.
Oberg gives a nice, complete explanation of what happened and how it was overcome. But the concluding paragraph may come as a bit of a surprise:
It is dismaying that after decades of experience with manned space stations, Russian space engineers still couldn’t keep unwanted condensation at bay. But what’s worse is that they designed circuitry that would allow one spot of corrosion to fell a supposedly triply redundant control computer complex. Another cause for dismay is that when trouble did develop, the Russians’ first instinct was to blame their American partners. Such deficiencies need to be worked out in the years ahead, on the space station, before both the technology and the diplomacy can be thought reliable enough for far-ranging missions that replacement shipments wouldn’t be able to reach.
Why is he so harsh? Because, as his wiki entry explains:
During the 1990s, he was involved in NASA studies of the Soviet space program, with particular emphasis on safety aspects; these had often been covered up or downplayed, and with the advent of the ISS and the Shuttle-Mir programs, NASA was keen to study them as much as possible.
Ah. Got it – he’s professionally aggravated that the Russians *haven’t* been willing to learn the lessons of their mistakes. Because until you ‘fess up to the mistakes you make, you can’t learn from them . . . and more people will die, needlessly.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Failure, Flu, Government, Health, Pandemic, Plague, Politics, Predictions, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Terrorism
[This post contains spoiler information about Communion of Dreams.]
Twin news items to make you nervous:
Well, it makes me nervous, anyway. First we have a report on how with the increased accreditation of so-called high security labs has seen an increased incident rate for those labs. In the last 4 years, more than 100 incidents involving very dangerous biologic materials have occurred. From the first news article:
The mishaps include workers bitten or scratched by infected animals, skin cuts, needle sticks and more, according to a review by The Associated Press of confidential reports submitted to federal regulators. They describe accidents involving anthrax, bird flu virus, monkeypox and plague-causing bacteria at 44 labs in 24 states. More than two-dozen incidents were still under investigation.
The number of accidents has risen steadily. Through August, the most recent period covered in the reports obtained by the AP, labs reported 36 accidents and lost shipments during 2007 — nearly double the number reported during all of 2004.
And the second one involves cattle ranchers who are concerned about the DHS plans for a new animal disease research lab, and how the proximity of such a lab near livestock operations poses a threat. (Disclosure note: my hometown of Columbia was recently removed from a list of potential sites, in part thanks to efforts of friends of mine who opposed such a facility being placed here.) The threat is not theoretical – it is little known in this country, but recent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in Britain have been tied to a similar research lab in that country. Yet this is what we hear from the government:
“No matter where we put it it’s going to be safe and secure,” said James Johnson, Homeland Security‘s director of national labs and the program manager for the planned lab.
I’m sure it will be, Jim. Just like all those other high-security labs around the country.
See, the problem is that people being people, mistakes happen. Under the best of conditions. And when you’re messing around with really dangerous shit, the potential harm of an error goes way up. And that is only being concerned with mistakes.
[Spoiler alert.]
Because what happens when some one or group decides to exploit the system in place to redirect something really nasty for their own purposes? This is what I use as the source of the original ‘Fire Flu’ for Communion, though that isn’t revealed until late in the book. Impossible? Oh? Remember the 2001 Anthrax attacks which killed five people and shut down the Senate’s postal facility? That whole episode is still unsolved.
I don’t know about you, but when the same people who let New Orleans die tell me that I should trust them to secure biologic agents which have the potential to wipe out our (overly concentrated) livestock, cause widespread crop failure, or even start a pandemic plague of some variety, I shudder.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Failure, General Musings, Government, Iraq, Nuclear weapons, Predictions, Society, Violence
So, three weeks ago I wrote about the initial reports that the Air Force had managed to lose track of some of its nukes, and accidentally transported them across the country.
Well, the story just keeps getting better. From the Washington Post this past Sunday:
Three weeks after word of the incident leaked to the public, new details obtained by The Washington Post point to security failures at multiple levels in North Dakota and Louisiana, according to interviews with current and former U.S. officials briefed on the initial results of an Air Force investigation of the incident.
The warheads were attached to the plane in Minot without special guard for more than 15 hours, and they remained on the plane in Louisiana for nearly nine hours more before being discovered. In total, the warheads slipped from the Air Force’s nuclear safety net for more than a day without anyone’s knowledge.
“I have been in the nuclear business since 1966 and am not aware of any incident more disturbing,” retired Air Force Gen. Eugene Habiger, who served as U.S. Strategic Command chief from 1996 to 1998, said in an interview.
Yeah, that’s disturbing, all right. But why bring it back up? We knew already that the incident was a colossal fuck-up. What more is there to be said?
Go read the Washington Post follow-up, and you’ll get a sense of why this is a big deal. Here’s another excerpt:
Military officers, nuclear weapons analysts and lawmakers have expressed concern that it was not just a fluke, but a symptom of deeper problems in the handling of nuclear weapons now that Cold War anxieties have abated.
But could there be something else at work?
The Air Force’s inspector general in 2003 found that half of the “nuclear surety” inspections conducted that year resulted in failing grades — the worst performance since inspections of weapons-handling began. Minot’s 5th Bomb Wing was among the units that failed, and the Louisiana-based 2nd Bomb Wing at Barksdale garnered an unsatisfactory rating in 2005.
Both units passed subsequent nuclear inspections, and Minot was given high marks in a 2006 inspection. The 2003 report on the 5th Bomb Wing attributed its poor performance to the demands of supporting combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Wartime stresses had “resulted in a lack of time to focus and practice nuclear operations,” the report stated.
Ah, there ya go. The stresses of the ongoing debacle in Iraq is now playing havoc with the security of our nuclear forces. That’s not a terribly comforting thought, is it? I mean, letting nukes sit unsecured out on an air force base for more than 24 hours means that any number of really bad things could have happened, up to and including the possible theft of one (or more) of the weapons. Gee, now think . . . who might want to have access to such a weapon? Even if you didn’t have the capability of using it as a nuclear bomb, you could still crack open the thing and get access to the highly toxic and extremely radioactive fissionable material. That’d make a swell terror weapon if used on American soil.
And, unfortunately, I am no longer willing to dismiss entirely the possibility that our own government (or parts thereof) might be willing to see such a thing happen for their own reasons. Yeah, I know, tin-foil beanie stuff. But can you honestly say that you would put the idea 100% out of mind?
Jim Downey
(Cross posted to UTI.)
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Bipolar, Depression, Failure, Health, Hospice, Sleep, Writing stuff
This is pretty raw. I reserve the option to amend or delete it entirely later. [9/18 7:15 AM: I’ve added a postscript – see below.]
I’m worn out. I’m emotionally and physically bankrupt. I’m spent, empty. Just a dry husk.
It was a *very* long day. Started with the migraine I mentioned in my previous post. Then care-giving was really rough. Worst it’s been, and that’s saying something. I don’t know whether my MIL had another little stroke, or is fighting an infection, or is approaching the end of her life, but damn – every fifteen to twenty minutes today I had to go tend to her, see what she needed. It was always some variation on the theme of her “needing to get ready to go home”, or wanting to “look outside to see if her ride is here,” or “needing to call the people she usually lives with in order to let them know that she was here”. I tried everything I know or could think of – distraction, answering questions, asking questions, reassuring, re-directing, lying outright – and nothing, nothing, would stick. Ten or fifteen minutes after I had gotten her calmed down or focused on something else, or whatever, she’d call again.
And this, of course, on a day when I was really trying to concentrate, punch through the mild migraine, get some conservation work done. Some rather delicate conservation work, at that. Work which had been promised to a client two weeks ago.
And, of course, my wife had a thing this evening that she had to go do (my suggestion that she do so – no fault to her). She got home after I had my MIL tucked in to bed and was working on the dishes.
And as I stood there at the sink, washing the dishes, thinking favorably on the option of having a heart attack, it sunk in that I was done. I mean, I’d been considering that a heart attack might be the best solution to my problems. Yeah, a heart attack. Hell, at 49, I’d probably survive it. It’d come as no surprise to anyone, given the kind of physiological and psychological stress I’m under. No one could blame me for no longer being a care-provider for someone with Alzheimer’s. Hey, it might even get someone to think about noticing my writing, since a tragic character (whether alive or dead) always gets more notice as an artist than does someone who has their life, and their shit, together.
So, that was that. I looked my own failure to continue right in the eye, and told my wife. I can’t continue to do this. I can’t deal with another day like this. Maybe later, but not now.
I thought earlier that I could do this indefinitely. But it has gotten so much harder in recent weeks. I don’t like to fail at something. I don’t like to set aside a job before it is done.
But it beats having a heart attack.
Postscript:
Like I said at the outset, that’s pretty raw. And I’m going to leave it as is, though following 8+ hours of sleep I feel better and have a different perspective on things.
This is one of the functions that this blog serves for me: being a form of therapy, allowing me to express things in a way that allows me to vent and get some perspective. I get it off my chest, so to speak.
And it serves another, related purpose: to help others understand just how difficult and demanding it is being a care-provider for someone with dementia, to share with other care-providers my stories as a form of support. And here, I am talking about those who choose to be care-providers for friends and loved ones at home. Professionals who do this, God bless ’em, do not have the same perspective: they get to go home at the end of their shift (or even their double shift, in rare circumstances). Doing this at home means you never get to leave.
I am by no means a ‘weak’ person. Not physically, not intellectually, not emotionally. And yet you can see what effects the constant, unending wearing has on me. There’s a good reason why care-providers suffer huge stress-related illness, including, yes, heart attacks.
As I said, this morning I feel a lot better. The migraine is just wisps and echoes, and I hope it remains that way. I have this trip to meet with my new client and pick up the first lot of books, which means a couple of hours road time to allow the worries and cares to unspool behind me a bit. Just getting out of the house for the bulk of the day will help.
I do not know where we go from here. My wife and I discussed my exhaustion last night, when I told her that I was “done”. But since we were already going to change the care-giving package to allow me more time to concentrate on my conservation work in the coming months, it may be that we keep my MIL here at home and I just try and ride this out, knowing an end is in sight. (As I told the social worker for Hospice when we first hooked up, “I can sleep on broken glass for six months, if I know that’s the end of it.”)
So, no fretting – I’m better this morning. And while I cannot control what might actually happen to me vis-a-vis my health (beyond doing what I can to stay healthy), I’m no longer even contemplating a heart attack as a good alternative strategy.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Failure, General Musings, Health, Hospice, Publishing, Religion, Sleep, Writing stuff
After she finished doing the nursing assessment of my MIL, I escorted ‘Missy’ from the Hospice agency out to her car. We paused just outside the back door, and she looked at me. “You guys are really doing a great job as care-givers.”
She probably tells that to all the people they work with. It’s likely in the manual.
But you know, it was still good to hear.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
Every one of family and friends we’ve told have been very supportive. “Glad you’re getting some help.” “About time you were able to find a good Hospice.” “Good that you can have some support.” “Maybe now you can get some regular assistance, even some more respite care in each week.”
But you know, it somehow feels like failure. Like we’re giving up, giving in, saying “we can’t handle this any more.”
I always knew this time would come. Just as I know that someday my MIL will die. Well, part of me knew these things. Part of me didn’t. It’ll take some time for the emotional reality to catch up with the intellectual.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
I found myself while on my morning walk considering what it will be like. To be able to go visit friends without having to coordinate family coming in to stay with my MIL. To not have to listen to a baby monitor 24 hours a day. To get some real sleep night after night after night. Daring to think that I might once again have a life of my own.
Really, that’s how it is. You develop such tunnel vision – everything has to be considered in terms of one objective: being a care provider. Yes, you take breaks as you can, you try and get some exercise, some sleep, eat right. Maybe even do some writing or conservation work. But all of that is secondary. Distantly secondary. Because you have to be there for the person you are caring for. It is a sacred trust, perhaps the only thing I truly consider to be sacred.
But now I start to consider What Comes After.
And it frightens me.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
Over 4,300 people have downloaded my novel. That’s an average of 600 people a month. Pretty good for what is basically word-of-mouth. I have a lot of work ahead of me to turn this into landing an agent, getting a publishing contract. If not for this book, then for the next one, on the basis that I have at least that much name recognition, that much of an ‘audience’.
I have the prequel to write. There’s a couple chapters already done that will need to be revised. And outlines for the rest of the book to be reworked.
I have at least two patentable ideas – one firearms related, one a consumer electronics item – that I need to pursue, see what I can do to either formally file a patent, or convince the appropriate large corporation to buy the idea from me with something less formal.
I need to earn some money, pay off debt.
I need to lose a bunch of weight, get back into something resembling decent shape.
And I’m frightened. For the last four years, none of these goals has really been paramount. So it has been easy to not succeed at them, and not take it as a personal failure. Soon, I will no longer have that excuse.
Can I succeed? Can I accomplish something lasting with my life?
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
A friend sent me the “Quotes of the Day” this morning. It contained one of my long-time favorites:
There is no expedient to which a man will not go to avoid the labor of thinking.
— Thomas A. Edison
Certainly true. One only has to look around at the world to see that. So very few people are willing and able to actually think for themselves. Oh, they may believe this or that, and call it thinking. But to actually stop, and consider, and understand? That is a rare thing.
I have been chronically tired for years now. And my ability to think clearly, or for any length of time, has been correspondingly diminished. I can point to this or that instance recently when I was able to think and work for short periods, once I had a bit more sleep and time to decompress. But it is a fragile thing. And I worry that perhaps it has slipped away. . .
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
Jim Downey
Filed under: Climate Change, Failure, Flu, General Musings, Global Warming, Health, Pandemic, Predictions, Press, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Writing stuff
GENEVA (AFP) – The World Health Organisation on Thursday warned that a new deadly infectious disease like AIDS or Ebola is bound to appear in the 21st century, in a report urging more global solidarity to tackle an expanding array of health threats.
“It would be extremely naive and complacent to assume that there will not be another disease like AIDS, another Ebola, another SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), sooner or later,” the 2007 World Health Report said.
It’s news like this, resulting from extensive scientific research into pandemics and potential threats from the development of infectious diseases thanks to climate change and further penetration of population into heretofore ‘remote’ areas, which lead me to use a pandemic flu as the basis for the history of Communion of Dreams. And I first started thinking about this about 10 years ago. In other words, nothing’s changed – but the science is consistent, and we’re likely overdue for a major global pandemic.
Comforting thought, isn’t it?
Jim Downey
Filed under: Failure, Firefly, Guns, Joss Whedon, movies, Science Fiction, Serenity, Space, tech
I can only assume that it is a healthy respect for my martial arts abilities and proficiency with firearms that stopped my friends from kidnapping me and forcing me to watch the first episode of Firefly. That is the only possible excuse I will allow.
Yeah, I finally started watching the series. The first disc eventually found its way to the top of my Netflix queue and arrived yesterday. But as we had something else on tap, we didn’t get to it until tonight. So, we watched what Joss Whedon intended to be the pilot, the 90-minute piece titled (somewhat confusingly, since there’s also the feature film of the same name) Serenity.
It took only 20 minutes. No, it didn’t take 20 minutes to ‘get into’ it. That happened at about 20 seconds. It only took twenty minutes for me to start mentally kicking myself for not having gotten around to seeing the damned show before. And that was just because it took that long until I managed to disengage my complete focus on the show long enough to consider the matter. At 26 minutes I turned to my wife and said “OK, I’ll order our copy of the series tonight.”
I won’t belabor the point. There are countless blog posts and websites praising the series. I’ll just say two things: one, this is what science fiction television should be; two, “I’m sorry” to all my friends for being such a stubborn bastard and waiting so long to heed your advice – rest assured that I have now seen the error of my ways, and I only hope that I don’t get hit by a truck or something before I’m able to finish seeing the whole thing at least once.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Ballistics, Failure, Fireworks, Guns, Marketing, movies, NASA, Science, Society, Space, tech, YouTube
A buddy of mine sent me a bunch of YouTube links last night to clips of explosions (among other things). Some were compilations of failed rocket launches, some were ‘stupid human tricks’. He knows, budding pyromaniac that I am, that I would enjoy such things. Hey, what do you expect from someone whose birthday is the Fourth of July?
Anyway, it got me thinking about a niche cable channel which would be sure to be a huge hit: The Explosions Channel. Oh, I know that The Discovery Channel does some of this, as does The History Channel. But on those, explosions provide the punctuation for other stories, with the occasional feature on firearms, artillery, fireworks, demolitions, et cetera which has a higher-than-average explosion count. But think of the potential for a channel where you just *know* that you could tune in and catch some big explosions, anytime, day or night! It’d be like MTV for the jaded geek, pure visual heroin for the explosions junkie. Guys like me could turn it on, and sit there, slack-jawed and drooling, eyes wide, as explosion after fireball after thunderous report . . .
Jim Downey
Just a quick post, a look-back on this day to what is undoubtably my biggest failure to date: my ill-fated effort four years ago to organize a letter-writing campaign to persuade the Nobel Prize committee to award the Nobel Prize in Literature to J. K. Rowling, for the Order of the Phoenix. As noted on my Wikipedia page, it was a complete and total debacle – even the Harry Potter fans hated the idea.
Ah well. You can see the original webpage from the effort here, archived on my afineline site, though the site nobelprizeforjo has long since lapsed. Be curious to see if anyone else will pick up on this idea, now that her series is finished. As I said at the time, “who else has done more to promote literacy worldwide?”
Jim Downey
Communion Of Dreams 