Filed under: Architecture, Flu, Health, Pandemic, Plague, Predictions, Science, Society, Space, tech, Writing stuff
Couple of items of interest from the news.
First, researchers have figured out a way to produce what I called “plasteel” in Communion of Dreams, and used as the basis for a lot of the architecture of the future. From PhysOrg.com:
New plastic strong as steel, transparent.
By mimicking a brick-and-mortar molecular structure found in seashells, University of Michigan researchers created a composite plastic that’s as strong as steel but lighter and transparent.
It’s made of layers of clay nanosheets and a water-soluble polymer that shares chemistry with white glue.
Engineering professor Nicholas Kotov almost dubbed it “plastic steel,” but the new material isn’t quite stretchy enough to earn that name. Nevertheless, he says its further development could lead to lighter, stronger armor for soldiers or police and their vehicles. It could also be used in microelectromechanical devices, microfluidics, biomedical sensors and valves and unmanned aircraft.
Ah, I love to see my predictions actually coming true. (Not that I knew exactly how this would be achieved, but it was clear that materials science will reap a huge benefit from nanotech advancements.)
Now for the bad news:
Bird flu virus mutating into human-unfriendly form.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The H5N1 bird flu virus has mutated to infect people more easily, although it still has not transformed into a pandemic strain, researchers said on Thursday.
The changes are worrying, said Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
“We have identified a specific change that could make bird flu grow in the upper respiratory tract of humans,” said Kawaoka, who led the study. “The viruses that are circulating in Africa and Europe are the ones closest to becoming a human virus,” Kawaoka said.
This is unbelievably bad news. The thing which has kept H5N1 from becoming a real threat is that it is difficult for it to move from one human to another – almost all the deaths attributable to the virus so far have come in animal to human transfers. Part of this is due to the fact that the virus just doesn’t find us all that good a place to set up shop. But once it does, it will only be a matter of time before you start to see human-to-human transfers. And then it’ll be “hello, pandemic!” And depending on how virulent that strain is, it may or may not precipitate the sort of global catastrophe I envision as the basis for Communion.
That’s one prediction I’d really love to have completely wrong.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Failure, Flu, Government, Health, Pandemic, Plague, Politics, Predictions, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Terrorism
[This post contains spoiler information about Communion of Dreams.]
Twin news items to make you nervous:
Well, it makes me nervous, anyway. First we have a report on how with the increased accreditation of so-called high security labs has seen an increased incident rate for those labs. In the last 4 years, more than 100 incidents involving very dangerous biologic materials have occurred. From the first news article:
The mishaps include workers bitten or scratched by infected animals, skin cuts, needle sticks and more, according to a review by The Associated Press of confidential reports submitted to federal regulators. They describe accidents involving anthrax, bird flu virus, monkeypox and plague-causing bacteria at 44 labs in 24 states. More than two-dozen incidents were still under investigation.
The number of accidents has risen steadily. Through August, the most recent period covered in the reports obtained by the AP, labs reported 36 accidents and lost shipments during 2007 — nearly double the number reported during all of 2004.
And the second one involves cattle ranchers who are concerned about the DHS plans for a new animal disease research lab, and how the proximity of such a lab near livestock operations poses a threat. (Disclosure note: my hometown of Columbia was recently removed from a list of potential sites, in part thanks to efforts of friends of mine who opposed such a facility being placed here.) The threat is not theoretical – it is little known in this country, but recent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in Britain have been tied to a similar research lab in that country. Yet this is what we hear from the government:
“No matter where we put it it’s going to be safe and secure,” said James Johnson, Homeland Security‘s director of national labs and the program manager for the planned lab.
I’m sure it will be, Jim. Just like all those other high-security labs around the country.
See, the problem is that people being people, mistakes happen. Under the best of conditions. And when you’re messing around with really dangerous shit, the potential harm of an error goes way up. And that is only being concerned with mistakes.
[Spoiler alert.]
Because what happens when some one or group decides to exploit the system in place to redirect something really nasty for their own purposes? This is what I use as the source of the original ‘Fire Flu’ for Communion, though that isn’t revealed until late in the book. Impossible? Oh? Remember the 2001 Anthrax attacks which killed five people and shut down the Senate’s postal facility? That whole episode is still unsolved.
I don’t know about you, but when the same people who let New Orleans die tell me that I should trust them to secure biologic agents which have the potential to wipe out our (overly concentrated) livestock, cause widespread crop failure, or even start a pandemic plague of some variety, I shudder.
Jim Downey
I got back from my morning walk with the dog to find my wife helping her mom take her after-breakfast pills. Not just encouraging her, but actually placing the pills in her mouth for her, helping her hold up and drink from the glass of juice.
I changed the dog’s collar, put away his leash. Took off my knee braces and the little belly pouch I wear for walking the dog which contains some treats, a small bottle of water, plastic bags for droppings. Removed my light jacket and MP3 player. Went back into the kitchen and leaned against the counter opposite where my wife and MIL were sitting. My wife looked up.
“Another T.I.A.?”
She nodded.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
From MedlinePlus:
Transient Ischemic Attack
Also called: Mini-stroke, TIA
A transient ischemic attack (TIA) is a stroke that comes and goes quickly. It happens when a blood clot blocks a blood vessel in your brain. This causes the blood supply to the brain to stop briefly. Symptoms of a TIA are like other stroke symptoms, but do not last as long. They happen suddenly, and include
- Numbness or weakness, especially on one side of the body
- Confusion or trouble speaking or understanding speech
- Trouble seeing in one or both eyes
- Loss of balance or coordination
Most symptoms of a TIA disappear within an hour, although they may last for up to 24 hours. Because you cannot tell if these symptoms are from a TIA or a stroke, you should get to the hospital quickly.
TIAs are often a warning sign for future strokes. Taking medicine, such as blood thinners, may reduce your risk of a stroke. Your doctor might also recommend surgery.
National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
They’re coming more frequently now. We saw the first (that we noticed) early this year. I was helping my MIL out to the car for a hair appointment, and all of a sudden she just slumped, slipping straight down, knees buckling to the pavement before I caught her.
The first time you see a T.I.A. hit someone, you’re completely bewildered by it. Well, at least I was. My MIL, who was capable of standing and stepping with care and help, and who is usually somewhat plugged into her immediate surroundings, just seemed to “shut down”. I got her in her chair, but she slumped over. She seemed unaware of anything around her, barely responsive to my questions and prodding. It was early in the day, but she was acting like it was the very end of the evening, when she would usually be deep into ‘sundowning‘, exhausted and ready for bed. So, I put her to bed.
Then I called my wife, did some research. I had thought it was likely a T.I.A., and brushing up on the available info confirmed it. So did my MIL’s doctor, who my wife called.
What to do? With someone of my MIL’s age, and with her other medical issues? Nothing really to be done. Bed rest, note it. Roll with it.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
When we’d had a couple more T.I.A.s this summer, and with the other indications we’d seen (some of which I’ve mentioned), we decided the time was here to again seek Hospice. In the month since, my MIL has had several more T.I.A.s, about one a week. Each time, the treatment is the same: get her into bed, let her sleep it off. After a couple of hours she’s back to what passes for normal. We note it, and are sure to tell the Hospice nurse when she comes for her weekly visit.
A T.I.A. itself isn’t really that big a deal, as noted on that site cited above. It is, however, something of a warning. As the Wiki page on T.I.A. states under “Prognosis”:
Patients diagnosed with a TIA are sometimes said to have had a warning for an approaching cerebrovascular accident. If the time period of blood supply impairment lasts more than a few minutes, the nerve cells of that area of the brain die and cause permanent neurologic deficit. One third of the people with TIA later have recurrent TIAs and one third have a stroke due to permanent nerve cell loss.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
So, we wait. For either another T.I.A., or a full-fledged stroke. And we try to make her days as comfortable and enjoyable as we can, within the constraints of our own exhaustion and need to pace ourselves for what could yet be a long haul.
And in the meantime, tomorrow is our 20th wedding anniversary. For the most part, observation of same is postponed until later by tacit agreement between my wife and I, though we will make a favorite meal and bake a cake. We have one another, the details will sort themselves out later.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Climate Change, Flu, Flu Wiki, General Musings, Global Warming, Health, Pandemic, Predictions, Science, Society
You’ve probably seen it – the media is filled with reports of the brain-eating amoeba which has killed six. Here’s a sample:
PHOENIX – It sounds like science fiction but it’s true: A killer amoeba living in lakes enters the body through the nose and attacks the brain where it feeds until you die.
Even though encounters with the microscopic bug are extraordinarily rare, it’s killed six boys and young men this year. The spike in cases has health officials concerned, and they are predicting more cases in the future.
“This is definitely something we need to track,” said Michael Beach, a specialist in recreational waterborne illnesses for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“This is a heat-loving amoeba. As water temperatures go up, it does better,” Beach said. “In future decades, as temperatures rise, we’d expect to see more cases.”
Scary, eh? And tying it to climate change makes it even moreso.
But explain to me why this is more frightening than the 8 new cases of Ebola reported in Congo. The Ebola hemorrhagic fever family of viruses have no treatment, no vaccine, a mortality rate up to 90%, and are easily passed from person to person.
Or why six people dying from swimming in lakes is worse than the 65 people who have died already this year from H5N1, according to the FluWiki. This influenza virus (and related variants) is considered to be the most likely cause of the next global pandemic.
Oh, never mind. I know why – because it’s here in the US. And it eats brains. And it is an easy connection to the effects of climate change. And because it is new. Fear sells, as I discussed in comments in this post a couple of weeks back.
But really, either Ebola or H5N1 are a much greater threat, as any public health official or doctor will tell you. They just don’t have the cool name of “Zombie Amoeba.”
Jim Downey
The Columbia Daily Tribune did a feature piece today about Alzheimer’s, tying a presentation by a local researcher to the experience that my wife and I have had in caring for her mom. Nothing really new in it, for anyone who has read my materials here, but I thought you might find it interesting to get another perspective on the matter. I think she did a good job with the piece.
A note: while I wrote a regular column on the arts for the Trib until the first of this year, I did not know the reporter who did this piece prior to meeting her for an interview about this story last Tuesday.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Artificial Intelligence, Augmented Reality, Expert systems, General Musings, Health, Hospice, Predictions, Press, Science, Science Fiction, tech, Writing stuff
Several quick items this morning…
First off, last stats I saw (yesterday morning), over 5,400 people have downloaded the novel. That’s like 1,200 this month alone. Yay!
Hits to this blog have also continued to rise – over 5,000 so far. So have submitted spam ‘comments’, of course, now over 2,000. Glad that the filtering software catches the vast bulk of that stuff.
A friend sent me the current issue of the American Ceramic Society Bulletin. Unfortunately, items he wanted to share with me are not available through their site, but with about 10 seconds of searching, I was able to pull up more complete information on the two things I wanted to mention. Sheesh – when will people figure out that hiding basic information behind a subscription firewall is not only pointless, but aggravating to the average person? Now, rather than linking to their content (and increasing their traffic/exposure/possibility for advertising), I’ll link to the other sources.
First of these is about the latest developments in transparent transistors. This is the thin-film tech I stipulate for the best computers in Communion of Dreams which are not based on the superconducting Tholen gel.
Second is how scientists have discovered a way to embed silicon nanowires right into living cells without causing damage to the cells. This is the basis of the mind-machine interfaces that I use for the computer and communications tech in Communion, though I don’t go into the details of it in the book.
In both cases the tech is further along than I had expected when I first wrote the novel, but it is good to see that my predictions about how things would likely develop were on track.
Lastly, there will be a newspaper feature about my wife and I caring for my MIL in the local paper this evening. I’ll post about it with a link probably tomorrow.
Jim Downey
The last couple of days with my MIL have been relatively calm. Given her behaviour on Monday, my wife and I have settled on a TIA as being the likely culprit, though of course that’s a non-medical opinion.
One odd thing we’ve noticed, though, is that particularly in the mornings after breakfast, while my MIL displays a marked tiredness, she’s been reluctant to take a nap. This is new – for the last couple of months a nap in the morning has been fairly routine for her. When we ask her after getting her dressed whether she would like to have a nap, it’s almost like she is fearful of the notion. She says that she’s worried about when she’ll get up, and how to call for help, et cetera. But there seems to be more to it than that.
In talking about it this morning following another such episode (my MIL did finally opt to have a nap), my wife suggested that perhaps she (my MIL) is actually concerned that she’ll go to sleep and not wake up, but that the idea of that hasn’t been formulated solidly in her mind. I have to wonder whether this is an unconscious awareness of her approaching death.
And here we run into one of the biggest problems in helping someone with dementia at the end of life – the difficulty in helping them understand what is happening, of allaying her fears. With someone still in full possession of their mental faculties, you can discuss what is happening either directly or indirectly, suss out their concerns, help them come to terms with it. My MIL doesn’t have the ability to process such things any longer, and to try and penetrate her mental fog with a clear message of an impending death would just be cruel; it would pointlessly and needlessly frighten her, without giving any sort of comfort or peace of understanding. All we can do is provide her such love, safety, and reassurance as we can, as we all stumble along this unknown and unknowable path.
Jim Downey
Filed under: BoingBoing, Flu, Flu Wiki, General Musings, Health, Pandemic, Plague, Predictions, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Space
Fulfilling about 2/3 of all Science Fiction tropes ever created, it seems that there may be a connection with the impact of a meteorite and a mystery illness in a rural Peruvian village:
LIMA (AFP) – Villagers in southern Peru were struck by a mysterious illness after a meteorite made a fiery crash to Earth in their area, regional authorities said Monday.
Around midday Saturday, villagers were startled by an explosion and a fireball that many were convinced was an airplane crashing near their remote village, located in the high Andes department of Puno in the Desaguadero region, near the border with Bolivia.
Residents complained of headaches and vomiting brought on by a “strange odor,” local health department official Jorge Lopez told Peruvian radio RPP.
It wasn’t a little thing, either – it left an impact crater reported to be about 100′ wide and 20′ deep.
Now, it remains to be seen whether this is anything more than a simple case of mass hysteria. I mean, if you’re some llama herder and a big damn fireball lands outside your village, it’d be pretty easy to get a case of the vapours over it.
But that don’t mean that it isn’t possible that there’s actually something to this. Panspermia (or more narrowly, exogenesis) has some fairly solid evidence behind it, enough to suggest that it is possible that there is some form of life capable of surviving coming to Earth on a meteor. And, if that form of life is similar enough to us, it could become a problem. A problem our biology might not be able to handle. One that would make a pandemic flu look like a nice little summer cold. One that generations of SF writers have speculated about. Except that in this case, it might actually be true.
Frightened yet?
Jim Downey
(Via BoingBoing.)
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Bipolar, Depression, Failure, Health, Hospice, Sleep, Writing stuff
This is pretty raw. I reserve the option to amend or delete it entirely later. [9/18 7:15 AM: I’ve added a postscript – see below.]
I’m worn out. I’m emotionally and physically bankrupt. I’m spent, empty. Just a dry husk.
It was a *very* long day. Started with the migraine I mentioned in my previous post. Then care-giving was really rough. Worst it’s been, and that’s saying something. I don’t know whether my MIL had another little stroke, or is fighting an infection, or is approaching the end of her life, but damn – every fifteen to twenty minutes today I had to go tend to her, see what she needed. It was always some variation on the theme of her “needing to get ready to go home”, or wanting to “look outside to see if her ride is here,” or “needing to call the people she usually lives with in order to let them know that she was here”. I tried everything I know or could think of – distraction, answering questions, asking questions, reassuring, re-directing, lying outright – and nothing, nothing, would stick. Ten or fifteen minutes after I had gotten her calmed down or focused on something else, or whatever, she’d call again.
And this, of course, on a day when I was really trying to concentrate, punch through the mild migraine, get some conservation work done. Some rather delicate conservation work, at that. Work which had been promised to a client two weeks ago.
And, of course, my wife had a thing this evening that she had to go do (my suggestion that she do so – no fault to her). She got home after I had my MIL tucked in to bed and was working on the dishes.
And as I stood there at the sink, washing the dishes, thinking favorably on the option of having a heart attack, it sunk in that I was done. I mean, I’d been considering that a heart attack might be the best solution to my problems. Yeah, a heart attack. Hell, at 49, I’d probably survive it. It’d come as no surprise to anyone, given the kind of physiological and psychological stress I’m under. No one could blame me for no longer being a care-provider for someone with Alzheimer’s. Hey, it might even get someone to think about noticing my writing, since a tragic character (whether alive or dead) always gets more notice as an artist than does someone who has their life, and their shit, together.
So, that was that. I looked my own failure to continue right in the eye, and told my wife. I can’t continue to do this. I can’t deal with another day like this. Maybe later, but not now.
I thought earlier that I could do this indefinitely. But it has gotten so much harder in recent weeks. I don’t like to fail at something. I don’t like to set aside a job before it is done.
But it beats having a heart attack.
Postscript:
Like I said at the outset, that’s pretty raw. And I’m going to leave it as is, though following 8+ hours of sleep I feel better and have a different perspective on things.
This is one of the functions that this blog serves for me: being a form of therapy, allowing me to express things in a way that allows me to vent and get some perspective. I get it off my chest, so to speak.
And it serves another, related purpose: to help others understand just how difficult and demanding it is being a care-provider for someone with dementia, to share with other care-providers my stories as a form of support. And here, I am talking about those who choose to be care-providers for friends and loved ones at home. Professionals who do this, God bless ’em, do not have the same perspective: they get to go home at the end of their shift (or even their double shift, in rare circumstances). Doing this at home means you never get to leave.
I am by no means a ‘weak’ person. Not physically, not intellectually, not emotionally. And yet you can see what effects the constant, unending wearing has on me. There’s a good reason why care-providers suffer huge stress-related illness, including, yes, heart attacks.
As I said, this morning I feel a lot better. The migraine is just wisps and echoes, and I hope it remains that way. I have this trip to meet with my new client and pick up the first lot of books, which means a couple of hours road time to allow the worries and cares to unspool behind me a bit. Just getting out of the house for the bulk of the day will help.
I do not know where we go from here. My wife and I discussed my exhaustion last night, when I told her that I was “done”. But since we were already going to change the care-giving package to allow me more time to concentrate on my conservation work in the coming months, it may be that we keep my MIL here at home and I just try and ride this out, knowing an end is in sight. (As I told the social worker for Hospice when we first hooked up, “I can sleep on broken glass for six months, if I know that’s the end of it.”)
So, no fretting – I’m better this morning. And while I cannot control what might actually happen to me vis-a-vis my health (beyond doing what I can to stay healthy), I’m no longer even contemplating a heart attack as a good alternative strategy.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Book Conservation, Comics, Health, Migraine, OOTS, Sleep
I’ve suffered periodic bouts of migraines since adolescence. I know there are some food triggers, and I know that physical and emotional stress also can start a cycle. I even have “stress release” migraines, when some particularly difficult or demanding situation is over. I know several different types and intensity of migraine, from the ones that just make you a little miserable for a few hours to the ones that make it a almost impossible to get out of bed for two or three days. But most of all, I know that modern medicine offers me no real hope of relief from the damned things, and the best I can do is deal with them symptomatically with a range of mild to powerful narcotics.
Yeah, I’ve got a migraine. Been keeping it at bay for the last few days, having sometimes to resort to the least powerful of my Rx meds. Gah. Makes it hard to get anything done, and I have a *lot* to get done – a book conservation project I promised a client two weeks ago, a trip to pick up the first installment of books for the new client tomorrow, interviews with a reporter about being a care-provider, et cetera. Charming.
But at least OOTS is back from hiatus!
Jim Downey
Communion Of Dreams 