Filed under: Climate Change, Flu, Flu Wiki, General Musings, Global Warming, Health, Pandemic, Predictions, Science, Society
You’ve probably seen it – the media is filled with reports of the brain-eating amoeba which has killed six. Here’s a sample:
PHOENIX – It sounds like science fiction but it’s true: A killer amoeba living in lakes enters the body through the nose and attacks the brain where it feeds until you die.
Even though encounters with the microscopic bug are extraordinarily rare, it’s killed six boys and young men this year. The spike in cases has health officials concerned, and they are predicting more cases in the future.
“This is definitely something we need to track,” said Michael Beach, a specialist in recreational waterborne illnesses for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“This is a heat-loving amoeba. As water temperatures go up, it does better,” Beach said. “In future decades, as temperatures rise, we’d expect to see more cases.”
Scary, eh? And tying it to climate change makes it even moreso.
But explain to me why this is more frightening than the 8 new cases of Ebola reported in Congo. The Ebola hemorrhagic fever family of viruses have no treatment, no vaccine, a mortality rate up to 90%, and are easily passed from person to person.
Or why six people dying from swimming in lakes is worse than the 65 people who have died already this year from H5N1, according to the FluWiki. This influenza virus (and related variants) is considered to be the most likely cause of the next global pandemic.
Oh, never mind. I know why – because it’s here in the US. And it eats brains. And it is an easy connection to the effects of climate change. And because it is new. Fear sells, as I discussed in comments in this post a couple of weeks back.
But really, either Ebola or H5N1 are a much greater threat, as any public health official or doctor will tell you. They just don’t have the cool name of “Zombie Amoeba.”
Jim Downey
Filed under: Failure, General Musings, Government, Iraq, Nuclear weapons, Predictions, Society, Violence
So, three weeks ago I wrote about the initial reports that the Air Force had managed to lose track of some of its nukes, and accidentally transported them across the country.
Well, the story just keeps getting better. From the Washington Post this past Sunday:
Three weeks after word of the incident leaked to the public, new details obtained by The Washington Post point to security failures at multiple levels in North Dakota and Louisiana, according to interviews with current and former U.S. officials briefed on the initial results of an Air Force investigation of the incident.
The warheads were attached to the plane in Minot without special guard for more than 15 hours, and they remained on the plane in Louisiana for nearly nine hours more before being discovered. In total, the warheads slipped from the Air Force’s nuclear safety net for more than a day without anyone’s knowledge.
“I have been in the nuclear business since 1966 and am not aware of any incident more disturbing,” retired Air Force Gen. Eugene Habiger, who served as U.S. Strategic Command chief from 1996 to 1998, said in an interview.
Yeah, that’s disturbing, all right. But why bring it back up? We knew already that the incident was a colossal fuck-up. What more is there to be said?
Go read the Washington Post follow-up, and you’ll get a sense of why this is a big deal. Here’s another excerpt:
Military officers, nuclear weapons analysts and lawmakers have expressed concern that it was not just a fluke, but a symptom of deeper problems in the handling of nuclear weapons now that Cold War anxieties have abated.
But could there be something else at work?
The Air Force’s inspector general in 2003 found that half of the “nuclear surety” inspections conducted that year resulted in failing grades — the worst performance since inspections of weapons-handling began. Minot’s 5th Bomb Wing was among the units that failed, and the Louisiana-based 2nd Bomb Wing at Barksdale garnered an unsatisfactory rating in 2005.
Both units passed subsequent nuclear inspections, and Minot was given high marks in a 2006 inspection. The 2003 report on the 5th Bomb Wing attributed its poor performance to the demands of supporting combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Wartime stresses had “resulted in a lack of time to focus and practice nuclear operations,” the report stated.
Ah, there ya go. The stresses of the ongoing debacle in Iraq is now playing havoc with the security of our nuclear forces. That’s not a terribly comforting thought, is it? I mean, letting nukes sit unsecured out on an air force base for more than 24 hours means that any number of really bad things could have happened, up to and including the possible theft of one (or more) of the weapons. Gee, now think . . . who might want to have access to such a weapon? Even if you didn’t have the capability of using it as a nuclear bomb, you could still crack open the thing and get access to the highly toxic and extremely radioactive fissionable material. That’d make a swell terror weapon if used on American soil.
And, unfortunately, I am no longer willing to dismiss entirely the possibility that our own government (or parts thereof) might be willing to see such a thing happen for their own reasons. Yeah, I know, tin-foil beanie stuff. But can you honestly say that you would put the idea 100% out of mind?
Jim Downey
(Cross posted to UTI.)
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Artificial Intelligence, Augmented Reality, Expert systems, General Musings, Health, Hospice, Predictions, Press, Science, Science Fiction, tech, Writing stuff
Several quick items this morning…
First off, last stats I saw (yesterday morning), over 5,400 people have downloaded the novel. That’s like 1,200 this month alone. Yay!
Hits to this blog have also continued to rise – over 5,000 so far. So have submitted spam ‘comments’, of course, now over 2,000. Glad that the filtering software catches the vast bulk of that stuff.
A friend sent me the current issue of the American Ceramic Society Bulletin. Unfortunately, items he wanted to share with me are not available through their site, but with about 10 seconds of searching, I was able to pull up more complete information on the two things I wanted to mention. Sheesh – when will people figure out that hiding basic information behind a subscription firewall is not only pointless, but aggravating to the average person? Now, rather than linking to their content (and increasing their traffic/exposure/possibility for advertising), I’ll link to the other sources.
First of these is about the latest developments in transparent transistors. This is the thin-film tech I stipulate for the best computers in Communion of Dreams which are not based on the superconducting Tholen gel.
Second is how scientists have discovered a way to embed silicon nanowires right into living cells without causing damage to the cells. This is the basis of the mind-machine interfaces that I use for the computer and communications tech in Communion, though I don’t go into the details of it in the book.
In both cases the tech is further along than I had expected when I first wrote the novel, but it is good to see that my predictions about how things would likely develop were on track.
Lastly, there will be a newspaper feature about my wife and I caring for my MIL in the local paper this evening. I’ll post about it with a link probably tomorrow.
Jim Downey
Filed under: BoingBoing, Flu, Flu Wiki, General Musings, Health, Pandemic, Plague, Predictions, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Space
Fulfilling about 2/3 of all Science Fiction tropes ever created, it seems that there may be a connection with the impact of a meteorite and a mystery illness in a rural Peruvian village:
LIMA (AFP) – Villagers in southern Peru were struck by a mysterious illness after a meteorite made a fiery crash to Earth in their area, regional authorities said Monday.
Around midday Saturday, villagers were startled by an explosion and a fireball that many were convinced was an airplane crashing near their remote village, located in the high Andes department of Puno in the Desaguadero region, near the border with Bolivia.
Residents complained of headaches and vomiting brought on by a “strange odor,” local health department official Jorge Lopez told Peruvian radio RPP.
It wasn’t a little thing, either – it left an impact crater reported to be about 100′ wide and 20′ deep.
Now, it remains to be seen whether this is anything more than a simple case of mass hysteria. I mean, if you’re some llama herder and a big damn fireball lands outside your village, it’d be pretty easy to get a case of the vapours over it.
But that don’t mean that it isn’t possible that there’s actually something to this. Panspermia (or more narrowly, exogenesis) has some fairly solid evidence behind it, enough to suggest that it is possible that there is some form of life capable of surviving coming to Earth on a meteor. And, if that form of life is similar enough to us, it could become a problem. A problem our biology might not be able to handle. One that would make a pandemic flu look like a nice little summer cold. One that generations of SF writers have speculated about. Except that in this case, it might actually be true.
Frightened yet?
Jim Downey
(Via BoingBoing.)
Filed under: Apollo program, Astronomy, Buzz Aldrin, Constellation program, General Musings, Google, Government, NASA, Neil Armstrong, Peter Diamandis, Predictions, Press, Science, Society, Space, tech
As I mentioned the other day, news of the new Google Lunar X Prize organized by Peter Diamandis is getting a fair amount of attention, and appropriately so. It’s good to see Diamandis pursuing his dream, as I wrote about in this post about the Heinlein Centennial Gala:
And then Peter Diamandis‘ brilliant, inspiring presentation about how he considered Heinlein to have written not just visionary fiction, but had actually mapped out a functional business plan with The Man Who Sold the Moon. Diamandis said his dream, his goal, was to be there to welcome NASA back to the Moon when the Constellation Program vehicle arrives. This brought a standing ovation and cheers.
Indeed. And with the new Google Lunar X Prize, there’s a fair chance that could actually happen. If private space companies can land a remote-operated vehicle on the Moon under the prize guidelines by 2013 (most people are of the opinion that it’ll happen sooner), then I’d bet that scaling up the tech used to accomplish that to have people – perhaps even Diamandis himself – on the Moon before NASA’s target date of 2020 for Constellation is certainly possible. Remember, we went from having barely function sub-orbital craft to the Apollo 11 Moonshot in just 8 years.
One of the things I find particularly interesting is a bonus possible under the Google Lunar X Prize guidelines. Here it is:
• BONUSES: An additional $5 million in bonus prizes can be won by successfully completing additional mission tasks such as roving longer distances (> 5,000 meters), imaging man made artifacts (e.g. Apollo hardware), discovering water ice, and/or surviving through a frigid lunar night (approximately 14.5 Earth days).
That one bit right there in the middle that I bolded is what I’m talking about. It simultaneously nods to the accomplishments of NASA and also thumbs its nose at the agency. It perfectly sums up the mixed emotions many in the private sector feel about the government’s involvement in space exploration and development: respect for what was accomplished in the past, yet a burning desire to prove that the private players can do more, do it faster, and do it for less money.
I haven’t begun work on it yet, but one of the ‘intervening’ novels of my future history series (between Communion of Dreams and the prequel I’ve started titled St. Cybi’s Well) would be set sometime in the 2030s at one of the Israeli colonies on the Moon. The main character would be an artist who is on sabbatical there, exploring how the space environment effects an aesthetic sensibility. And one of the scenes I’ve envisioned would have him visiting the site of the first Lunar Landing, which has been carefully secured to preserve it as it was left by Armstrong and Aldrin, in order to use the site as inspiration. I must admit, I sort of hate the thought that there would be additional rover tracks there in order that someone could claim a bonus for the X Prize.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Book Conservation, General Musings, Hospice, Predictions, Society, Writing stuff
Well, that’s a bit of a surprise. More than a bit, to be honest.
I wrote back in May about meeting with an institutional client concerning a large collection (some 7,000 volumes) they had recently acquired, and how the initial expectation on the part of the administration at this institution was that all the books needed to just be rebound to look pretty. I mentioned that my suggestion of proper conservation treatment was completely foreign to them, and that I really didn’t expect that they would want me to do the work for them.
Well, I guess the conservation treatment I gave the three books I worked on as an example of what I do changed their minds. Because I found out this morning that they want me to do the work.
Frankly, I’m astonished. And pleased. Also a bit scared.
“Astonished” I’ve explained. “Pleased” is probably self-evident: this is a worthy collection of significant historical works that deserves proper care, and I know I can provide that care. And this is a multi-year project, meaning some security in terms of income and planning.
“Scared,” though? Well, yeah. This means a lot of work – good work, granted, on my own schedule, but the client will (understandably) want a large volume of books cared for and returned on a regular basis. And right now I can barely manage to concentrate sufficiently to do conservation work for a couple of hours per week.
Now, they don’t expect me to start handling that volume right from the start. I had told them from the beginning that I would need to ramp-up how much work for I did them, as I met previous obligations to other clients. I didn’t tell them about the other major factor limiting my time and energy, though: caring for my MIL.
My wife and I discussed this issue when I was first contacted by this institution, because frankly there is no way I can do the conservation work at that level and still be the primary care-provider for my MIL. So now we’ll need to sit down and sort out how we proceed. I could basically swap places with my wife, in terms of my “working” four days a week and her being home here to care for her mom (she’s an architect, and with some logistical shuffling she could do a limited amount of work from home). That’s one option. We might also consider others, perhaps making more use of the services available through Hospice.
And, of course, my MIL could die this week or next and make all question of needing to worry about such things moot. But that’s not what I hope for, nor how we can plan. Rather, we need to plan as though she is going to be with us, and still requiring substantial attention and care.
So, this means change. Perhaps a little sooner, and in a different manner, than I had been thinking about recently. And change can be a little scary.
Not that it’ll stop me, or even much give me pause.
Well, speaking of such things, I have conservation work that needs doing . . .
Jim Downey
Filed under: Flu, Flu Wiki, Government, Health, Pandemic, Predictions, Science, Science Fiction, Society
Another post today – there’s a Flu Wiki which may be of interest to folks who read this blog. From the site:
The purpose of the Flu Wiki is to help local communities prepare for and perhaps cope with a possible influenza pandemic. This is a task previously ceded to local, state and national governmental public health agencies. Our goal is to be:
- a reliable source of information, as neutral as possible, about important facts useful for a public health approach to pandemic influenza
- a venue for anticipating the vast range of problems that may arise if a pandemic does occur
- a venue for thinking about implementable solutions to foreseeable problems
Looks like a great resource, and since someone on the related forum was kind enough to post a link to Communion of Dreams as a “SF novel about post-pandemic world”, I thought the least I could do is return the favor. Because sure as hell, we’re going to get hit by a pandemic flu one of these days, and the more resources people have available about how to cope, the better.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Government, Health, movies, Predictions, RFID, Science, Science Fiction, Society, tech, Wired, Writing stuff
[This post contains spoilers about the plot of Communion of Dreams. I’ll attempt to minimize how much I reveal in the course of discussing this topic, but you’ve been warned.]
RFID tagging is a popular plot device in a lot of movies and fiction, as well as a functional tool for commerce and security. But a lot of people have concerns about how suitable this tech is for the way it is being applied. Let’s put it this way: if you don’t already have a RFID-blocking wallet for your passport (and soon your credit cards), plan on getting one. The authorities claim that RFID passports and other devices are secure, since they can only be ‘read’ by machines at close encounter (just a couple of inches), but hackers have already established that such devices can be read at up to 10 yards.
Anyway, RFID tags are also popular for pet owners, who will ‘chip’ a pet with ID info in case it is lost. Likewise, the tech has been used for monitoring seniors who live alone and for anti-kidnapping devices.
But it seems that there may be medical concerns about implanting the chips into tissue. Concerns which were ignored by FDA. From an AP article the other day:
When the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved implanting microchips in humans, the manufacturer said it would save lives, letting doctors scan the tiny transponders to access patients’ medical records almost instantly. The FDA found “reasonable assurance” the device was safe, and a sub-agency even called it one of 2005’s top “innovative technologies.”
But neither the company nor the regulators publicly mentioned this: A series of veterinary and toxicology studies, dating to the mid-1990s, stated that chip implants had “induced” malignant tumors in some lab mice and rats.
“The transponders were the cause of the tumors,” said Keith Johnson, a retired toxicologic pathologist, explaining in a phone interview the findings of a 1996 study he led at the Dow Chemical Co. in Midland, Mich.
What’s even better is that it seems as though the man who was the head of the agency which made the decision then went to work for one of the major corporations pushing the technology:
The FDA is overseen by the Department of Health and Human Services, which, at the time of VeriChip’s approval, was headed by Tommy Thompson. Two weeks after the device’s approval took effect on Jan. 10, 2005, Thompson left his Cabinet post, and within five months was a board member of VeriChip Corp. and Applied Digital Solutions. He was compensated in cash and stock options.
Compensated to the tune of options on a quarter-million shares of stock and some $80,000, according to Threat Level.
Pretty sweet, eh?
Anyway, this whole notion of integrating tech into our actual bodies is a mainstay of SF, and I do a lot with it in Communion, because I see it as likely that this is where we’re headed. That doesn’t mean that it is a good idea, though, as the example of the RFID chips being suspect shows.
And here’s where we get into the Spoilers:
For Communion, I suggest that there are two options for the human race: to continue down a path of integration with our technology, becoming increasingly ‘enhanced’ and wired and decreasingly human; or to embrace something of the sanctity of the human form – we can use technology, but not become merged with it. This happens via the connection with the alien artifact, which revitalizes aspects of our human ability which had long been suppressed. That the flu virus which had threatened human extinction turns out to have been an artifact of our own technology is just reinforcement of this metaphor.
Don’t mistake me – I am not a technophobe. If I need an artificial heart valve, or a pacemaker, or any similar tech bit installed in my body, then I’m fine with that. But I think the larger issue of integrating optional tech into our bodies will be fraught with dangers, and should not be embraced without real consideration – and I’m not talking about the kind of consideration that the RFID chips got from the FDA.
Jim Downey
Filed under: General Musings, NPR, Predictions, Press, Publishing, Reproduction, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Writing stuff
I was able to catch a bit of this morning’s Weekend Edition Sunday on NPR, and heard an interesting interview with first-time author Camille DeAngelis about her novel Mary Modern. You can find the story here, and there’s a link to the audio archive.
What caught my attention particularly was when host Liane Hansen asked DeAngelis whether at any point in the publishing process it was suggested that her novel belonged in the Science Fiction category. In the course of the discussion (starts at 3:00 in the audio file) DeAngelis expresses the opinion that in recent years so-called literary fiction has come to include more fantastic elements “because people want to exit ordinary life, and you get kind of tired about reading about missing children and cheating spouses and all that kind of thing.”
I’ve written previously that the term “Science Fiction” is too often used as a pejorative, that SF is a ghetto from which it is difficult to escape, and that the distinction between Science Fiction and more mainstream ‘speculative fiction’ is arbitrary at best. Communion of Dreams certainly *is* SF – but like Mary Modern, it has a much broader appeal than to just the Star Wars crowd.
Anyway, catch the interview if you can, and maybe put Mary Modern on your reading list. I know that when I’m able to think clearly again I’m going to have to give it a try.
Jim Downey
Communion Of Dreams 