Filed under: Flu, Flu Wiki, Government, Health, Pandemic, Predictions, Science, Science Fiction, Society
Another post today – there’s a Flu Wiki which may be of interest to folks who read this blog. From the site:
The purpose of the Flu Wiki is to help local communities prepare for and perhaps cope with a possible influenza pandemic. This is a task previously ceded to local, state and national governmental public health agencies. Our goal is to be:
- a reliable source of information, as neutral as possible, about important facts useful for a public health approach to pandemic influenza
- a venue for anticipating the vast range of problems that may arise if a pandemic does occur
- a venue for thinking about implementable solutions to foreseeable problems
Looks like a great resource, and since someone on the related forum was kind enough to post a link to Communion of Dreams as a “SF novel about post-pandemic world”, I thought the least I could do is return the favor. Because sure as hell, we’re going to get hit by a pandemic flu one of these days, and the more resources people have available about how to cope, the better.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Government, Health, movies, Predictions, RFID, Science, Science Fiction, Society, tech, Wired, Writing stuff
[This post contains spoilers about the plot of Communion of Dreams. I’ll attempt to minimize how much I reveal in the course of discussing this topic, but you’ve been warned.]
RFID tagging is a popular plot device in a lot of movies and fiction, as well as a functional tool for commerce and security. But a lot of people have concerns about how suitable this tech is for the way it is being applied. Let’s put it this way: if you don’t already have a RFID-blocking wallet for your passport (and soon your credit cards), plan on getting one. The authorities claim that RFID passports and other devices are secure, since they can only be ‘read’ by machines at close encounter (just a couple of inches), but hackers have already established that such devices can be read at up to 10 yards.
Anyway, RFID tags are also popular for pet owners, who will ‘chip’ a pet with ID info in case it is lost. Likewise, the tech has been used for monitoring seniors who live alone and for anti-kidnapping devices.
But it seems that there may be medical concerns about implanting the chips into tissue. Concerns which were ignored by FDA. From an AP article the other day:
When the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved implanting microchips in humans, the manufacturer said it would save lives, letting doctors scan the tiny transponders to access patients’ medical records almost instantly. The FDA found “reasonable assurance” the device was safe, and a sub-agency even called it one of 2005’s top “innovative technologies.”
But neither the company nor the regulators publicly mentioned this: A series of veterinary and toxicology studies, dating to the mid-1990s, stated that chip implants had “induced” malignant tumors in some lab mice and rats.
“The transponders were the cause of the tumors,” said Keith Johnson, a retired toxicologic pathologist, explaining in a phone interview the findings of a 1996 study he led at the Dow Chemical Co. in Midland, Mich.
What’s even better is that it seems as though the man who was the head of the agency which made the decision then went to work for one of the major corporations pushing the technology:
The FDA is overseen by the Department of Health and Human Services, which, at the time of VeriChip’s approval, was headed by Tommy Thompson. Two weeks after the device’s approval took effect on Jan. 10, 2005, Thompson left his Cabinet post, and within five months was a board member of VeriChip Corp. and Applied Digital Solutions. He was compensated in cash and stock options.
Compensated to the tune of options on a quarter-million shares of stock and some $80,000, according to Threat Level.
Pretty sweet, eh?
Anyway, this whole notion of integrating tech into our actual bodies is a mainstay of SF, and I do a lot with it in Communion, because I see it as likely that this is where we’re headed. That doesn’t mean that it is a good idea, though, as the example of the RFID chips being suspect shows.
And here’s where we get into the Spoilers:
For Communion, I suggest that there are two options for the human race: to continue down a path of integration with our technology, becoming increasingly ‘enhanced’ and wired and decreasingly human; or to embrace something of the sanctity of the human form – we can use technology, but not become merged with it. This happens via the connection with the alien artifact, which revitalizes aspects of our human ability which had long been suppressed. That the flu virus which had threatened human extinction turns out to have been an artifact of our own technology is just reinforcement of this metaphor.
Don’t mistake me – I am not a technophobe. If I need an artificial heart valve, or a pacemaker, or any similar tech bit installed in my body, then I’m fine with that. But I think the larger issue of integrating optional tech into our bodies will be fraught with dangers, and should not be embraced without real consideration – and I’m not talking about the kind of consideration that the RFID chips got from the FDA.
Jim Downey
Filed under: General Musings, NPR, Predictions, Press, Publishing, Reproduction, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Writing stuff
I was able to catch a bit of this morning’s Weekend Edition Sunday on NPR, and heard an interesting interview with first-time author Camille DeAngelis about her novel Mary Modern. You can find the story here, and there’s a link to the audio archive.
What caught my attention particularly was when host Liane Hansen asked DeAngelis whether at any point in the publishing process it was suggested that her novel belonged in the Science Fiction category. In the course of the discussion (starts at 3:00 in the audio file) DeAngelis expresses the opinion that in recent years so-called literary fiction has come to include more fantastic elements “because people want to exit ordinary life, and you get kind of tired about reading about missing children and cheating spouses and all that kind of thing.”
I’ve written previously that the term “Science Fiction” is too often used as a pejorative, that SF is a ghetto from which it is difficult to escape, and that the distinction between Science Fiction and more mainstream ‘speculative fiction’ is arbitrary at best. Communion of Dreams certainly *is* SF – but like Mary Modern, it has a much broader appeal than to just the Star Wars crowd.
Anyway, catch the interview if you can, and maybe put Mary Modern on your reading list. I know that when I’m able to think clearly again I’m going to have to give it a try.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Bad Astronomy, Bipolar, Carl Zimmer, Cosmic Variance, Fermi's Paradox, Flu, Genetic Testing, Health, Music, Pandemic, Pharyngula, Phil Plait, Plague, Predictions, Saturn, Science, Science Fiction, The Loom, Writing stuff
They’re mixing with the population
A virus wearing pumps and pearls
Lord help the lonely guys
Hooked by those hungry eyes
Here come Tomorrow’s Girls
Tomorrow’s Girls
Donald Fagan, “Tomorrow’s Girls” from Kamakiriad
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
I can always tell when I’m feeling better, or have gotten a bit of sleep and am able to think (somewhat) again: I get that little rush of energy, mind jumping and drawing connections between ostensibly divergent topics. It is a shadow of the way I feel when my bipolar condition swings to the manic phase, and all things seem clear and possible.
Such is the case this morning.
I read a lot of science blogs. Pharyngula. Cosmic Variance. Phil Plait’s Bad Astronomy. The Angry Toxicologist. But even before he started blogging at The Loom, I was aware of the science reporting of Carl Zimmer. And recently Carl posted a link to his Seed Magazine cover story “The Meaning of Life.” It’s not terribly long, and you should just go read the whole thing.
But among the entire very interesting article is this wonderful idea: that it is a mistake to try and define what life is right now. Philosopher Carol Cleland of NASA’s Institute for Astrobiology is very much in the thick of this, saying that we do not have the necessary perspective. As Zimmer puts it:
Instead of trying to formulate a definition of life, Cleland and Chyba argue, we need to develop a theory of life—an overarching explanation of nature that joins together a myriad of seemingly random phenomena. Biologists have discovered a number of theories–the germ theory of disease and Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection, for example—yet they have no full-fledged theory of life itself. The underlying uniformity of life is one of the great discoveries of modern biology, but it’s also an obstacle. It represents only a single data point, and blinds us to the possibilities of “weird life.” We have no idea exactly which features of life as we know it are essential to life as we don’t know it.
A theory of life would allow us to understand what matters to life, what possible forms it can take, and why. It would let us see connections that we might otherwise miss, just as chemists can see the hidden unity between a cloud in the sky and a block of ice. Scientists are already trying to build a theory of life. A number of researchers have been developing a theory in which life is a self-organized system that can be described using the same principles physicists use to describe hurricanes or galaxies. As biologists learn more and more about how the millions of molecules in a cell work together, these theorists can put their ideas to more precise tests.
For Cleland, the most promising way to build a theory of life is to look for alien life. In 2013, the European Space Agency plans to put a rover back on Mars. Called Exomars, it will drill into the Martian crust to seek out signs of life. NASA has plans of its own on the drawing board, including one possible mission that would bring Martian soil back to Earth for intense study. Meanwhile, other promising habitats for life, such as some of the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, beckon. Cleland argues that finding alien life would allow us to start figuring out what is truly universal about life, rather than just generalizing from life as we know it. Only when we have more data, she reasons, will we have a basis for comparison. As it stands now, says Cleland, “we have no grist for the theoretical mill.”
Brilliant. This is not unlike the revolution in perspective which occurred with the transition to a heliocentric model of the solar system. It necessarily moves us from the bias that our version of life is the only possible model. I’ve written about this previously, but it is good to see such a complete treatment of the topic as Zimmer gives it.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
It looks like scientists have discovered the likely culprit in the collapse of the honey bee populations in the US: a virus.
Virus implicated in bee decline
A virus has emerged as a strong suspect in the hunt for the mystery disease killing off North American honeybees.
Genetic research showed that Israeli Acute Paralysis Virus (IAPV) turned up regularly in hives affected by Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD).
Over the last three years, between 50% and 90% of commercial bee colonies in the US have been affected by CCD.
And from the same source:
Also open is the question of how the virus arrived in the US. One finger of suspicion points to Australia, from where the US began importing honeybees in 2004 – the very year that CCD appeared in US hives.
The researchers found IAPV in Australian bees, and they are now planning to go back through historical US samples to see if the Antipodean imports really were the first carriers.
If they were, the US might consider closing its borders to Australian bees.
The way the researchers determined that a virus was involved is also interesting. Since the honey bee genome has been ‘solved’ (completely mapped), they were able to assay the entire genetic contents of a hive and then remove the known components. What was left included some bacterial agents which are probably in symbiotic harmony with the bees, and various fungi and other items. By comparing a healthy hive’s genetic assay with one suffering from CCD, they were able to identify possible culprits – in this case, the IAPV.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
Communion of Dreams is set in a post-pandemic Earth, where a viral agent was responsible for widespread death and sterility some 40 years prior to the time of the novel. One good model of exactly how that could happen is CCD with the honey bees, though that has occurred in the time since I first wrote the book.
Now, how does this all tie together? Well, only because the researchers looking into the honey bee problem had the tools of genetic mapping available to them were they able to understand what was (likely) going on. Something similar happens in Communion on two fronts – resolving the riddle of the orphan girl and understanding the threat of the new virus. But perhaps more importantly, there is the mystery of the alien artifact and its connection the the superconducting gel, which I describe as “more alive than not” – this gets to the very heart of the issue of understanding the true nature of the universe, and discarding our previous biases.
Oh, and lastly, I’m sure we’ll see something from Zimmer about the IAPV discovery. Why? Because one of his specialties is the nightmare-inducing world of parasites, and looking at the evolutionary struggle between hosts and diseases.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Climate Change, Failure, Flu, General Musings, Global Warming, Health, Pandemic, Predictions, Press, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Writing stuff
GENEVA (AFP) – The World Health Organisation on Thursday warned that a new deadly infectious disease like AIDS or Ebola is bound to appear in the 21st century, in a report urging more global solidarity to tackle an expanding array of health threats.
“It would be extremely naive and complacent to assume that there will not be another disease like AIDS, another Ebola, another SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), sooner or later,” the 2007 World Health Report said.
It’s news like this, resulting from extensive scientific research into pandemics and potential threats from the development of infectious diseases thanks to climate change and further penetration of population into heretofore ‘remote’ areas, which lead me to use a pandemic flu as the basis for the history of Communion of Dreams. And I first started thinking about this about 10 years ago. In other words, nothing’s changed – but the science is consistent, and we’re likely overdue for a major global pandemic.
Comforting thought, isn’t it?
Jim Downey
Filed under: Artificial Intelligence, Expert systems, Predictions, Ray Kurzweil, Science, Science Fiction, Singularity, Singularity Institute, Society, tech
As I’ve said before, I’m a late-adopter of tech. I’m probably the last person in the US under the age of fifty and with an IQ above room temp who has made the transition over to Firefox.
Oh, it’s not as bad as it sounds – I’ve been running Mozilla for several years, and Netscape in one variety or another before that, all the way back to when I first got online in about ’93. But with the additional options available in Firefox2, it made sense to make the jump. So, with my good lady wife’s help (she’s the resident geek, not me) I switched yesterday, and then spent much of the rest of the day enjoying the much improved surfing experience, tweaking the set-up, learning the little quirks of the new software.
And also teaching it my own preferences and habits. This was the bit that I found amusing – that in one sense, I’m teaching Seth’s great-whatever-grandpappy his ABCs. Oh, we’re about 30 iterations of Moore’s Law away from the S-Series A.I. I have in Communion of Dreams, and a couple of computer ‘generations’ (if you consider that we’re currently in the fourth generation, that quantum computing will be the fifth, with my Tholin gel tech following that.) But it really does feel like something akin to a baby expert system I’m dealing with here, as we learn from one another.
I still don’t expect that we’ll experience a true Singularity such as Kurzweil and others have predicted, and the novel is in large part an exploration of why that is. But it is certainly the case that we’re moving towards a major threshold of technological change at an ever-increasing rate. Even late-adopters like me.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Alzheimer's, Flu, Health, Pandemic, Plague, Science, Science Fiction, Society
Research has established one component of the world-wide epidemic of obesity: a virus.
A common virus that causes colds can be a factor in obesity, according to a study released Monday offering further evidence that a weight problem may be contagious.
The adenovirus-36 (Ad 36) has already been implicated as the cause of weight gain in animals, but with this study researchers showed for the first time that it can also cause humans to pile on the pounds.
The findings could accelerate the development of a vaccine or an antiviral medication to help fight the battle of the bulge alongside diet and exercise.
It’s a slow-moving, slow-acting plague. This would go a long ways to explaining why obesity has become so wide-spread in the last few decades, and has been hinted at in previous studies. There are other factors, certainly, but establishing a tie to a viral component could be a huge factor in dealing with this problem more effectively.
I’m overweight by about 40 pounds. Partly this is a function of my lifestyle, with the lack of opportunity to be active and the additional stress of being a full-time care provider for someone with Alzheimer’s. I know that with a lot of effort in exercise and watching what I eat, I can shake off the excess pounds – I’ve done it a couple of times. But it is so much harder now than it was before, and my natural weight-point has changed from where it used to be a decade ago to where it is now. And this pattern is seen increasingly around the globe, where other factors at play in my life or in the typical American life can be eliminated.
In Communion I have a post-pandemic society, one which is recovering from a massive disruption caused by a flu virus which caused rapid death in a large percentage of the population. But the reality of what we’re dealing with might be even more insidious.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Ballistics, Failure, Fireworks, Guns, Marketing, movies, NASA, Science, Society, Space, tech, YouTube
A buddy of mine sent me a bunch of YouTube links last night to clips of explosions (among other things). Some were compilations of failed rocket launches, some were ‘stupid human tricks’. He knows, budding pyromaniac that I am, that I would enjoy such things. Hey, what do you expect from someone whose birthday is the Fourth of July?
Anyway, it got me thinking about a niche cable channel which would be sure to be a huge hit: The Explosions Channel. Oh, I know that The Discovery Channel does some of this, as does The History Channel. But on those, explosions provide the punctuation for other stories, with the occasional feature on firearms, artillery, fireworks, demolitions, et cetera which has a higher-than-average explosion count. But think of the potential for a channel where you just *know* that you could tune in and catch some big explosions, anytime, day or night! It’d be like MTV for the jaded geek, pure visual heroin for the explosions junkie. Guys like me could turn it on, and sit there, slack-jawed and drooling, eyes wide, as explosion after fireball after thunderous report . . .
Jim Downey
Communion Of Dreams 