I wrote this the other day:
But I was exhausted by it. Not so much the conversation or reminiscing. That was good. More by having to exercise that much of my extrovert persona for such a long time in front of so many people. My strong tendency towards introversion has been fed by the years of being a care provider and working here alone.
It is part of the deep strangeness of my life that while I am so much an introvert I have often found myself in decidedly public roles. My early SCA career helped me understand how to do that, and do it reasonably well. But the tension within me remains.
Decidedly so. But a part of that is my understanding myself, and knowing that it is dangerous for me to be too isolated, too introverted. I know that I have to push myself out of my comfort zone in order to stay healthy. It’s like physical exercise: I don’t particularly like it – at least not at first – but I need to do it. And once I do, I’m usually glad that I did.
Like the other night. I was dreading attending the second session of a Neighborhood Leadership Program the city is conducting. I didn’t feel particularly well, and I could’ve used the time and energy to do other things that needed attention. But I went. And it was a good session, as I noted on the Neighborhood blog:
It is still too soon to say with any certainty, but I think that some good things will be coming out of this program, including some structural changes to how the city handles Neighborhood Associations, and how Neighborhood Associations are able to work together to achieve common goals. One of the first things all the attendees discovered was that just about every other Neighborhood Association had similar concerns and frustrations – and a realization that we would have a greater chance of success if we could work together rather than as isolated individual groups.
It is good to challenge myself – to take on jobs I won’t particularly enjoy, to do things I know I may well dislike, just for the experience. There’s a lot to be said for simple comfort, but it would be too easy for me to just become dead to the world or anything new if I relied on that too much. And I like to actually live.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Depression, Emergency, Failure, Government, NYT, Predictions, Preparedness, Society, Survival
for another happy-happy Monday morning post about the economy! Yay! Everyone gather around, and let Uncle Jim tell you a story…
“We’re screwed.”
Did you like my story? Oh, you want details? If you insist.
No, I’m not going to talk about the Dow being down below 7,000 for the first time this century (it’s at 6,900 as I write). Nor about the news this morning of AIG’s additional $61.7 billion loss last quarter. Those are just symptoms.
To really understand what is happening, listen to this weekend’s episode of This American Life, part of which I touched on last Friday. It’ll help explain how and why the fundamental problem is a political one: no one really wants to face the prospect of doing what has to be done to clean up this mess, because it would mean too many powerful interests get burned. Rather, everyone – all the bankers, all the investors, the US and European and Japanese governments – is hoping beyond hope that they can finesse their way through this, and things will skate by on the thin ice and get better sometime, somehow.
Why do I say that? Because, as they said in the “Bad Bank” episode, nationalization of banking systems has been done before. In fact, it’s been done a lot of times. But usually in this or that small foreign country, and under the direction/demand of the IMF as a condition of aid. Nationalization means that the government steps in to protect the overall economy by forcing corrections in the banking system directly – that is, the government takes over (to some degree) the operation of the banks for a period of time. And this means that while the government involved usually has to assume some of the costs, that shareholders and investors take the worst hit. Oh, and the bankers who created the mess usually get tossed out if not tossed in prison. (An aside: someone commented recently that if this were happening in China, that people would be executed. I can’t say that I think that would be a bad idea.)
But the current problem is so widespread, and involves so much of the business/monied classes in the US and Europe, that nationalization is generally considered a ‘nuclear option’, a last resort to be avoided at almost all costs.
Well, we’re seeing what “all costs” means, right now. I do actually want to talk about AIG a bit here. You should read Joe Nocera’s column from last Friday, titled “Propping Up a House of Cards“. Here’s a couple of relevant excerpts:
If we let A.I.G. fail, said Seamus P. McMahon, a banking expert at Booz & Company, other institutions, including pension funds and American and European banks “will face their own capital and liquidity crisis, and we could have a domino effect.” A bailout of A.I.G. is really a bailout of its trading partners — which essentially constitutes the entire Western banking system.
* * *
There’s more, believe it or not. A.I.G. sold something called 2a-7 puts, which allowed money market funds to invest in risky bonds even though they are supposed to be holding only the safest commercial paper. How could they do this? A.I.G. agreed to buy back the bonds if they went bad. (Incredibly, the Securities and Exchange Commission went along with this.) A.I.G. had a securities lending program, in which it would lend securities to investors, like short-sellers, in return for cash collateral. What did it do with the money it received? Incredibly, it bought mortgage-backed securities. When the firms wanted their collateral back, it had sunk in value, thanks to A.I.G.’s foolish investment strategy. The practice has cost A.I.G. — oops, I mean American taxpayers — billions.
Here’s what is most infuriating: Here we are now, fully aware of how these scams worked. Yet for all practical purposes, the government has to keep them going. Indeed, that may be the single most important reason it can’t let A.I.G. fail. If the company defaulted, hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of credit-default swaps would “blow up,” and all those European banks whose toxic assets are supposedly insured by A.I.G. would suddenly be sitting on immense losses. Their already shaky capital structures would be destroyed. A.I.G. helped create the illusion of regulatory capital with its swaps, and now the government has to actually back up those contracts with taxpayer money to keep the banks from collapsing. It would be funny if it weren’t so awful.
OK, still, AIG was just a symptom, even as central a role as it plays in this fiasco. What was the cause?
It’s tempting to say “greed” and just leave it at that. But the problem is bigger than that. It’s “trust”. Trust that housing prices would continue to rise, regardless. Trust that people would act rationally, and only buy homes that they could afford. Trust that loan officers would only loan to people who were qualified. Trust that bank managers would execute proper oversight. Trust that banking executives would exercise due judgment. Trust that credit markets would operate to offset risk with reserves. Trust that rating agencies would rate risk appropriately. Trust that the invisible hand of the marketplace would keep excess in check. And trust that failing any of these, the govermental regulatory agencies would intercede and enforce statuatory limitations.
Well, you can see where trust has gotten us. Take nothing on faith. Over the last couple of decades, regulation was relaxed and business sought to push the boundaries further, creating new financial instruments which the average person can barely understand. The experts told us it was all hunky-dory, and we believed them. But we should have noted that they were the ones to benefit from the whole scheme, and been less trusting. Or, more accurately, we should have demanded that our elected representatives in government were less trusting. But they stood to benefit as well, with the corruption of corporate donations to campaigns and lucrative Board positions once politicians left office.
I must admit to being sorely tempted to come to the conclusion that we deserve what is happening. Very sorely tempted.
Jim Downey
(Cross posted to UTI.)
Filed under: Depression, Emergency, Failure, Government, Predictions, Preparedness, Society, Weather
It’s been a warm week here in central Missouri. 40s early on, up almost to 70 midweek. Yesterday it was 60s. With sun, and the sort of rain you get in early spring.
Little wonder that the trees are starting to bud, jonquils break through the topsoil, snowdrops in full riot.
Naturally enough, it’s supposed to snow tonight and tomorrow.
* * * * * * *
NPR had a fascinating – and frightening – story this morning:
Taxpayer Beware: Bank Bailout Will Hurt
A single piece of paper may just be one of the most surprising and illuminating documents of the whole banking crisis.
It’s a one-page research note from an economist at Deutsche Bank, and it outlines in the clearest terms the kind of solution many bankers are looking for. The basic message: We should forget trying to get a good deal for taxpayers because even trying will hurt.
“Ultimately, the taxpayer will be on the hook one way or another, either through greatly diminished job prospects and/or significantly higher taxes down the line,” the document says.
The story called the piece of paper a “Ransom Note.” Or, as the presenter put it another way, “That’s a nice global economy you got there. Be a real shame if anything happened to it.”
Shakedown, baby.
* * * * * * *
But it may be too late for that, already. Surprising everyone, the US economy contracted at an annualized rate of 6.2% in the last quarter of 2008. Overnight, the government worked out a deal to own upwards of 36% of Citibank Corp. Consumer spending has dropped off radically as people react to the uncertain economy and start to pay down the historically high debt ratios – ratios which haven’t been seen since 1929.
And it’s not limited to just us. Japanese manufacturing output fell 10% just last month, on top of a 9.8% drop in December – a stunning drop, the likes of which has not been seen for over 50 years. That is a reflection of the drop off in demand globally.
* * * * * * *
There will be snow tonight and tomorrow. How much damage it does to the flowers and trees will remain to be seen. But it sure seems that spring is a long ways off.
Jim Downey
(Cross posted to UTI.)
Filed under: Daily Kos, Depression, Emergency, Failure, Health, Society, Survival
For the first time since the Dance of Stupidity & Pain I took the dog for his morning walk today. Just got back. And gawds, does my knee hurt. Between the half mile walk and the 18 degree temp out, I feel like someone shot me just below the knee.
As I expected.
But it had to be done.
* * * * * * *
There was a good segment on NPR this morning, with an economic historian who has a new book out about the Great Depression. One of the things that emerged from the piece was his comment about how the current economic situation is frightenly familiar to the situation then. From the NPR website:
Ahamed calls the similarities between our current economic problems and the Great Depression “eerie.” He points out that both crises began with a bubble, and that both bubbles were caused, in his view, by mistakes in federal review policy. And, when both bubbles burst, they eventually led to a banking crisis.
But, he says, the leaders of today can learn from the lessons of the Great Depression: First, he says, we should not let the banking system collapse. Second, we should not go to extreme lengths to try to protect the currency. Third, we need to let the budget deficit expand.
“The problem of the Great Depression was … a failure of intellectual will. The danger this time might be a failure of political will,” says Ahamed. “To bail out the banks is going to cost a lot of money, and the American public are so angry that they are not, at the moment, willing to sign a blank check.”
* * * * * * *
The heating pad helps. And in a few minutes I’ll get up, go find some OTC stuff to take to help the pain. But I expect that it’ll ache for much of the day, and this will complicate my plans to do some conservation work this afternoon (I work standing – always have. Most binders do, since you need to move a fair amount.)
So, why did I go for a walk? It’s been less than a week – I could have easily put it off a bit longer, let the bruised bone heal some more.
Because, as painful as I knew this would be, I didn’t want to let the rest of my body lose too much ground. Oh, I’ve been doing other exercises these last few days, but nothing is as good for me as walking is. Pain isn’t always an enemy.
Understanding that, accepting that, is one of the first steps to maturity, I think. I remember when I first read the passage from Dune where young Paul is tested by the Bene Gesserit to determine whether he is “human”. I was perhaps 9 or 10, and the scene impressed me greatly, gave me a jump start on dealing with the pain which would come to me early in life.
* * * * * * *
As noted in some of my posts here about the economy, I’m more than a little pissed off about how we got into this mess. Quite honestly, I think there’s quite a few candidates for a “Head-on-Pike Award of the Month” competition, complete with categories for “Best Expression”, “Most Deserving”, and “Ideal for Throwing Things At”. That many of these same people still hold elected office, or have been receiving massive bonuses (or complaining about not being able to get the bonuses they ‘deserve’) just adds to my dark musings about appropriate means of getting said heads on said pikes.
So yeah, I’m angry. And yeah, that influences my willingness to just write blank checks to cover the debts that these various and sundry assholes created.
But that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done.
* * * * * * *
Anyone who has been through any kind of serious injury or disease knows that there comes a point where you have to make a decision. You have to either hide from the continuing pain as best you can, using drugs or changing your lifestyle, or you have to do your best to get past the pain and do whatever you can to cope with the effects of your injury.
Neither choice is necessarily “right”. But they each come with consequences.
I have made choices each way, depending on the situation. I will not judge the choices that another makes.
Except when those choices have consequences for me. Like this:
Jindal rejects La.’s stimulus share
Louisiana‘s Bobby Jindal, a Republican, became the first governor Friday to refuse officially a part of his state’s share of the $787 billion stimulus bill, while President Obama warned the nation´s mayors to spend stimulus money wisely.
While some governors were subtly backing off previous statements that they wouldn’t take their share of the windfall, Mr. Jindal issued a statement saying Louisiana would not participate in a program aimed at expanding state unemployment insurance coverage.
“Increasing taxes on our Louisiana businesses is certainly not a way to stimulate our economy. It would be the exact wrong thing we could do to encourage further growth and job creation,” said Mr. Jindal, although the Louisiana legislature could override his decision.
No, I don’t live in LA. But this kind of behavior – and similar behavior by other Republican governors elsewhere – will have an impact on all of us, across the country. That it comes from the party that got us into this mess doesn’t make me any more sympathetic. That it comes at this point when states have been sucking up billions of Federal dollars at every opportunity for decades means that I cannot possibly see it as in any way credible. It is just grandstanding, and hypocritical to boot.
* * * * * * *
Well, this has taken longer than I intended. I guess I had more to say than I thought. Or maybe I’m just in more pain than I realized, and am using this as a distraction.
Look, this really is pretty simple. Yeah, the deficits necessary to get us out of this depression are going to hurt. And it is galling that no small amount of money is going into the pockets of people who directly caused it, or to save the bacon of pols who are blathering about how they don’t want it. If you want, you can also be pissed off at those who “bought more house than they could afford” and who may now get bailed out of that bad decision. It doesn’t matter – be pissed at who you want, however you want – so long as this gets done. Otherwise, we will just continue to bleed, to suffer, to experience pain until it consumes us and ruins our lives for decades.
I know which path I’ll take.
Jim Downey
(Cross posted to Daily Kos.)
I just conducted a little experiment. It’s one you can probably try yourself.
See, some time back I decided that I needed to watch the 2001 movie remake Planet of the Apes. I’d been on a bit of a Tim Burton kick, and figured that I should see this, even though it had been widely panned and looked dreadful. But before watching it, I figured that I should watch the original once again, so that I’d have it fresh in my mind for the comparison to the remake. So both movies went onto my NetFlix queue.
I saw Planet of the Apes when it first came out. I remember seeing it, and being just completely blown away by the phenomenal story and really cool ending twist. Hey, I was 10. But while I no longer consider it phenomenal, it is a good movie, and I have seen it probably a dozen times since.
Anyway, the 1968 version arrived yesterday. Since Monday is a holiday, I decided that I’d watch it and get it back in the mail today – no reason for it hanging around. Last night I wasn’t feeling great, and this morning was a little more busy than I had planned. So about 11:00, I sat down to watch the movie, aware that I wanted to be done before the mailman arrived (usually between 1:00 and 2:00 on Saturdays). Feeling a little time pressure, I figured I could maybe zip through some of the opening bits and whatnot at a faster speed, get done more quickly.
I decided to watch the movie on my computer, where I could set the speed at 1.5x normal. It compresses sound in some way automatically, so that things don’t sound too weird. I’d done this previously with parts of other movies I already knew and wanted to get through. And here’s the thing: I was able to watch the entire movie at 1.5x speed, and it seemed just fine.
OK, I slowed down some of the “action sequences” to normal speed. But those were like a total of 10 or fifteen minutes. All the rest of it – all the dialogue, all the traveling, all the plot development – seemed perfectly normal at 1.5x speed.
Hmm.
I was done in plenty of time, so I went back and rewatched the ending at the normal 1.0x speed. It seemed to take forever to get through it.
Hmm.
Now, this could just be due to the fact that I know the movie pretty well, and my mind was able to fill in the emotional development usually tied to visual/spoken narrative without a problem. But I think it has more to do with how we’ve been conditioned to experience movies currently. We expect them to move more quickly, for the information to be conveyed in a more rapid pace.
It could just be due to the style of current film-making, with quicker cuts and More Jam-Packed Special Effects!
Or it could be that our lives really are faster now than they used to be.
1.5 times faster.
Jim Downey
As in, it’ll take a genius to market this stuff:
India to launch cow urine as soft drink
Does your Pepsi lack pep? Is your Coke not the real thing? India’s Hindu nationalist movement apparently has the answer: a new soft drink made from cow urine.
The bovine brew is in the final stages of development by the Cow Protection Department of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), India’s biggest and oldest Hindu nationalist group, according to the man who makes it.
Om Prakash, the head of the department, said the drink – called “gau jal”, or “cow water” – in Sanskrit was undergoing laboratory tests and would be launched “very soon, maybe by the end of this year”.
Is that a promise, or a threat?
As a friend said: “Gives a whole new meaning when people call bad beer ‘p*ss water’.”
The RSS in the past has promoted the use of cow urine as a cure for cancer and other medical problems. Now, I can see it as a way to lose weight – it’d certainly put me off food – but as a cancer cure? Woo!!!
So, if you’re planning a trip to India later this year, and are feeling a little adventurous, feel free to sample this lovely local beverage and report back to me, OK?
Jim Downey
(Via BB. Cross posted to UTI.)
Filed under: 2nd Amendment, Ballistics, Civil Rights, Constitution, Daily Kos, Failure, Government, Guns, Politics, RKBA, Society
No, not from blogging. And it is only tangentially related to yesterday’s post. Rather, from visiting some of my usual gun forums – the upcoming inauguration has caused a resurgence of hatin’ on “LIEBRALS and DEMONCRATS”, and I just don’t have the stomach for it right now. As I said in a diary I posted on dKos a month ago:
I have given up participation in some gun forums for being told that I cannot be a gun owner and still be a liberal. Seriously, sometimes it is impossible to get other gun owners to understand that this issue does not need to be one which breaks down according to party alignment (and isn’t good for gun rights if it does). Even my family and some of my gun-owning friends have a hard time wrapping their head around it. The most common refrain is that no “true” gun owner can possibly be a liberal, or vote for a Democrat.
It happened again to me last night in one forum I particularly like. But I’ve seen much too much such sentiment the last week or so, on a variety of such discussion forums.
It’s maddening. Maddening because it is so damned short-sighted. A lot of people would rather be “pure” than win – they don’t care if they lose an argument, or their rights, so long as they get to trumpet their moral superiority. And a whole lot of “gun-rights activists”, who have tied their activism to the tail of an elephant, and now are so aligned with that party that they can’t see that there is a better path to preserving their Second Amendment rights. A path where the RKBA, and all the rest of the Bill of Rights, is respected and preserved by *both* major political parties. No, they would much rather pay homage to the GOP, and so alienate most moderate gun owners that they seem to be extremists – and therein delegitimize their cause, perhaps even hastening new pointless gun control legislation.
Gah. Makes me crazy.
So, I’m going to take a break. Being off to the wilds of northern California next week will help. Maybe the worst of this outbreak will pass by the time I get back.
Jim Downey
(Cross posted to Ballistics by the inch Blog and UTI.)
Filed under: Climate Change, Emergency, Failure, General Musings, Guns, Health, Humor, movies, Nuclear weapons, Predictions, Preparedness, Science Fiction, Society, Survival, Weather
Gah – it’s 55 degrees here. Inside, I mean. No, we don’t have the thermostat turned that low. The heating system, an old hot-water radiator setup, just can’t keep up when the temps get down to below zero Fahrenheit. Not in an old house with minimal insulation (and no simple way of adding any). So we wander around, playing Quintet, waiting for something resembling normal weather to return, trying to get done what we can.
It’s sobering. And instructive. In Communion of Dreams I stipulate a long period of harsh winters for much of the northern hemisphere, following the ‘small’ nuclear war in Asia. Having lived through some 15 Iowa winters, it was easy to imagine what that would be like. But I was younger, and memory is fleeting. Combine those cold conditions for a prolonged period with an economic collapse, and those years in my novel would be brutal – moreso than any of us probably understand.
And let’s hope it stays that way. When I read things like this, I wonder whether I have been entirely too optimistic about our future. Then again, not like these geniuses have been right about anything else for the last couple of years.
Wait – they’ve been entirely too optimistic, too, haven’t they? That’s what got us into this financial mess.
Gods, now I really am depressed.
And cold.
Jim Downey
Communion Of Dreams 