Filed under: Astronomy, Bad Astronomy, Brave New World, Fermi's Paradox, NASA, Phil Plait, Predictions, Science, Science Fiction, SETI, Space, tech | Tags: Adam Becker, Bad Astronomy, Communion of Dreams, Drake Equation, Fermi's Paradox, jim downey, Kepler mission, NASA, New Scientitst, Phil Plait, predictions, science, Science Fiction, space
How many Earth-like planets are there in our galaxy? Ones which are reasonably like ours, in terms of size, density, and location relative to their sun’s ‘habitable zone’? That’s one of the basic components of the Drake Equation, and until fairly recently all estimates were little more than speculation.
Enter Kepler:
Expanding our view from Kepler’s corner of the galaxy to show more of the Milky Way, the sky fills with billions of potentially life-bearing worlds. If we showed them all, the sky would be a mass of green. So now the green dots illustrate stars that might host such planets, visible with a good pair of binoculars on a dark night here on Earth.
From this perspective, the chances that we’re alone in the cosmos seem very slim, indeed.
The final answer? 15 – 30 billion Earth-like planets.
Of course, that doesn’t include the rest of the Drake equation values. Such as: what percentage of planets which could potentially develop life actually do so? Then what percentage of those planets develop intelligent, technologically sophisticated life? Then what percentage of such intelligent species develop interstellar communication capabilities? Then how long will such a civilization survive, out of the billions of years of history?
The last time I played with the numbers, the best guess from Phil Plait was that there were some 2.5 billion potentially habitable planets. Kepler indicates that number was too conservative, by something on the order of a factor of 10. Running the rest of the equation is largely just an experiment in gut feelings (since we don’t yet have any real data), but what is impressive is that at each stage as solid data has become available, we’ve had to adjust our “best guesstimate” numbers *upwards*. Meaning that the the total number of technologically sophisticated civilizations capable of interstellar communications out there at this point in time also goes up.
From Chapter 4 of Communion of Dreams:
“But in any event, as Arthur Bailey said this morning ‘where are they?’ Where are the aliens? That’s what’s bothering me.”
Where, indeed? I came up with my own answer, explained in Communion.
But I wonder what the real answer will be.
Jim Downey
Filed under: BoingBoing, movies, tech | Tags: animation, BoingBoing, Bot & Dolly, jim downey, technology, video
Unsurprisingly, the last couple of days have been darker than they could have been.
But life goes on. And so I want to share this, via BoingBoing:
Jim Downey
Filed under: Brave New World, Civil Rights, Connections, Constitution, General Musings, Government, Guns, Politics, Preparedness, Privacy, Society, Survival, tech, Terrorism | Tags: 1911, Constitution, FISA, government, jim downey, John Moses Browning, NSA, safety, security, technology
Almost every morning me and the dog go for a walk through the neighborhood. We have a well-established track about a mile long, which allows the dog to check his pmail and me to enjoy the changing seasons. At several points we have to cross from one side of the street to the other, and the dog has long since learned to pause at these junctures and wait for me to give him the go-ahead to cross. He’s a smart guy.
One morning recently a fellow in a big red pickup stopped at one of these crossing points, and kindly waved for me and the dog to go ahead and cross. He was just wanting to help.
* * * * * * *
Did you remember that yesterday was Constitution Day?
* * * * * * *
John Moses Browning was a firearms designer who was born in 1855. His design for the M1911 is considered to this day to be one of the best designs for a handgun, and 1911 variants are still extremely popular. Of the 1911 it has been said “designed by a genius to be used by morons.”
* * * * * * *
FISA court releases opinion upholding NSA phone program
A federal surveillance court on Tuesday released a declassified opinion upholding the constitutionality of the National Security Agency’s sweeping collection of billions of Americans’ phone records for counterterrorism purposes.
The gathering of “all call detail records” from phone companies is justified as long as the government can show that it is relevant to an authorized investigation into known — and, significantly — unknown terrorists who may be in the United States, the Aug. 29 opinion states.
Moreover, the government need only show that there are “reasonable grounds to believe” the records will be relevant to the investigation, a lower burden than required in ordinary criminal investigations. That is justified because the goal is to prevent a terrorist attack, not solve a crime that has already taken place, the court said, affirming the government’s position.
I feel safer already.
* * * * * * *
Almost every morning me and the dog go for a walk through the neighborhood. We have a well-established track about a mile long, which allows the dog to check his pmail and me to enjoy the changing seasons. At several points we have to cross from one side of the street to the other, and the dog has long since learned to pause at these junctures and wait for me to give him the go-ahead to cross. He’s a smart guy.
One morning recently a fellow in a big red pickup stopped at one of these crossing points, and kindly waved for me and the dog to go ahead and cross. He was just wanting to help.
I smiled, nodded, and then motioned him to go ahead. He looked at me for a moment, confused, and waved again for me to cross. I shook my head. Looking a little offended, he shrugged and went ahead through the intersection.
I sighed. The dog looked up at me from his waiting position. I gave him the command to go ahead and cross the street. He did. Like I said, he’s a smart guy.
Smart enough that I don’t want him drawing the lesson that it is OK to walk out in front of pickup trucks, even if their drivers are just wanting to help.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Augmented Reality, Civil Rights, Connections, George Orwell, Government, Heinlein, Humor, movies, Predictions, Privacy, Robert A. Heinlein, Science Fiction, Society, tech, Writing stuff | Tags: 1984, augmented reality, George Orwell, Heinlein, humor, jim downey, movies, NSA, predictions, Robert A. Heinlein, Science Fiction, Steve Jobs, surveillance, technology, writing, Zombies
I wouldn’t have the nerve to include this kind of thing in a novel … no one would believe that such an agency would have such a twisted sense of humor.
The magazine printed several slides alleged to have come from an NSA presentation referencing the film “1984,” based on George Orwell’s book set in a totalitarian surveillance state. The slides – which show stills from the film, former Apple Inc. chairman Steve Jobs holding an iPhone, and iPhone buyers celebrating their purchase – are captioned: “Who knew in 1984…that this would be big brother…and the zombies would be paying customers?”
Jim Downey
*Referencing this, of course.
Filed under: Augmented Reality, Google, Humor, Privacy, Society, tech | Tags: augmented reality, Gmail, Google, humor, jim downey, privacy
“Can I show you to a table?”
“Yeah, sure.” I followed the young, trim man over to a small table by the window.
“Will this be OK?”
“Fine.”
I sat down. The waiter stood next to the table.
“Would you like to order your mocha and cheese danish?”
“Sorry, what? I haven’t even looked at the menu yet.”
He glanced at a pad in his hand. “Our records show that you usually order a mocha – slim – and cheese danish whenever you come into the cafe at this time of day.”
“Um, not yet. I’m waiting for someone.”
“OK.” He glanced to the door. “Here she comes now.”
I turned, saw Sam enter. I looked back at the waiter.
He looked back. “Samantha Jones. 37. Two kids. Her husband, Joe, isn’t aware that you’re having an affair.”
I goggled. Sam came over, glanced at the waiter, sat down.
“Good morning! So, that’ll be coffee, black, for you, sir, with a fresh fruit platter. And Samantha will nibble at a blueberry muffin and drink water.” He gave us a wink. “Don’t want to get too full.”
Sam blinked, looked at me a little confused. We both looked to the waiter. “Yeah, sure.”
He nodded and smiled. Tapped a few keys on the pad, then just stood there.
I looked at Sam. She looked at me. I looked at the waiter. “Something I can help you with?”
“Oh, no sir. But thanks for asking.”
“Then, will you go away?”
“Oh, no sir. I’m here to facilitate anything you may need. Perhaps interest you in a special offer for a weekend getaway?” He glanced at the pad. “It’s been almost three months since the last one.”
“Um, but we’d like a little privacy.”
He smiled. “Not to worry, sir. I won’t share your information with anyone. This is just a service we provide. Completely routine.”
“Yeah, but, you know, we’d like to be … alone.”
“Sorry sir, but you agreed to the terms of service when you came in here. And the courts have ruled that you have no expectation of privacy in a public place such as this.”
“Yeah, but …”
Jim Downey
Filed under: Amazon, Apollo program, Astronomy, BoingBoing, Connections, Feedback, Kindle, Marketing, Mars, movies, NASA, Paleo-Future, Politics, Predictions, Promotion, Publishing, Science, Science Fiction, Society, Space, tech, Travel, Wales | Tags: Amazon, Apollo, ars technica, blogging, BoingBoing, bookbinding, Communion of Dreams, direct publishing, feedback, free, jim downey, Kindle, Mars, movies, NASA, politics, predictions, promotion, reviews, science, Science Fiction, space, technology, The Englishman Who Went Up a Hill But Came Down a Mountain, travel, Venus
Imagine three astronauts, 125 million miles from the Earth, talking to Mission Control with a four-minute time lag. They have seen nothing out their windows but stars in the blackness of space for the last 150 days. With a carefully timed burn, they slow into orbit around Venus, and as they loop around the planet, they get their first look at its thick cloud layer just 7,000 miles below.
It might sound like the plot of a science fiction movie, but in the late 1960s, NASA investigated missions that would send humans to Venus and Mars using Apollo-era technology. These missions would fly in the 1970s and 1980s to capitalize on what many expected would be a surge of interest in manned spaceflight after the Apollo lunar landings. They would be daring missions, but they would also be feasible with what was on hand.
Somewhat surprisingly, I don’t remember this at all. Though of course these were just “proof of concept” studies which were put together for NASA. Still, they were fairly well thought-out, as the article on ars technica demonstrates. As is often the case, technological limitations are less of an absolute factor in accomplishing something than economic/political limitations are. To borrow from a favorite old movie: “You wouldn’t believe what we did. It’s possible. It’s just hard work.”
What isn’t hard work? Getting entered into the drawing for a leather-bound copy of Communion of Dreams. Full details here. Yesterday’s Kindle promotion pushed us over 500 copies of the electronic version given away this month, and that puts the total number of copies out there somewhere in the neighborhood of 26,000. There are already 65 reviews posted to Amazon. Yet so far only 9 people have entered the drawing. You have until midnight this coming Saturday.
Jim Downey
Via BoingBoing.
Filed under: Amazon, Connections, Feedback, Health, Kindle, Marketing, Promotion, Publishing, Science Fiction, Society, tech, Writing stuff | Tags: Amazon, blogging, bookbinding, Communion of Dreams, direct publishing, feedback, health, jim downey, Kindle, promotion, reviews, Science Fiction, technology, writing
Some follow-ups to yesterday’s post.
* * *
My wife’s surgeon ordered another CAT scan and assessment, so this morning at entirely too early a time we got up and got her over to the hospital. Once all was said and done, the indications are good and it looks like the oral antibiotics she is taking are finally cleaning up the remaining infection in her abdomen. With a little luck, from here on out she just needs the usual post-surgery recuperation and she’ll be fine.
One curious thing I noted, though. When referring to this latest and the previous CAT scans she’s had done, everyone kept calling them “films”. The nurse in the radiology clinic did it. The radiologist performing the procedure did it. The nurse in the recovery area (where we had to wait following the latest scan, to see whether the surgeon wanted to do another invasive procedure) did it. And then the surgeon did it, specifically saying “I reviewed the films of this latest and the previous CAT scans with Dr. Radiologist, and …”
Which is odd, because I don’t think there’s ever been a practical CAT scan system which uses actual film. Certainly, none of the modern systems use any kind of film — they’re all digital systems and record data on a variety of different digital media.
Yet everyone referred to the results as “films.” I’m not sure whether this was because of their age (all were about my age, +/- a decade), or ours (thinking that middle-aged patients would still think of the technology in those terms).
Strange.
* * *
Speaking of reviewing, yesterday’s post also seems to have elicited three new reviews of Communion of Dreams on Amazon. Each is short, but together they would be a bit much for this blog post. So I’ll just note the links, and encourage you to check out what they have to say.
Remember, you have until Midnight (OK, 11:59:59) CDT on August 31 to get your entry in. Full information in this blog post.
Thanks, everyone — for your reviews, your interest in the novel, and most of all for your kind thoughts/prayers/good vibrations for my wife through her recent illness.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Amazon, Art, Connections, Feedback, Health, Humor, Kindle, Marketing, movies, Promotion, Publishing, Science Fiction, Society, tech | Tags: Amazon, art, blood, blood magic, Blood Tea and Red String, bookbinding, Communion of Dreams, direct publishing, economics, feedback, free, health, humor, jim downey, Kindle, movies, printing, promotion, reviews, Science Fiction, St. Cybi's Well, technology, writing
While on my morning walk, I was enjoying the beautiful day, the glint of sun on the dewdrops, the company of my dog.
And thinking about blood.
Specifically, about the old notion of a “contract signed in blood.”
Well, what if you had a culture which took books so seriously, that they were always made using blood as the ink?
Just off the top of my head, I could come up with all kinds of justifications for how such a culture might arise, from fantasy (‘blood magic’) to Science Fiction (books could always be traced back to their source through the DNA in the blood) to the plain creepy (“we do honor to our ancestors/enemies/icons by using their blood to write history”).
Yeah, it’s a little scary how my brain works sometimes.
* * *
And after I come up with something like that, usually within just a few seconds, my mind races off to consider what the practical ramifications would be to such a thing.
Economically, there’s some fun stuff you could do with it. Books could be purchased with the buyer’s own blood: “Price – just 750ml – get yours today!” Which also implies blood as the basic economic unit, but that wouldn’t necessarily be the case.
Mechanically, blood itself wouldn’t be a great printing ink without some other elements. So you could have the whole printing revolution based not on the development of a printing press, but on the discovery of how to make blood suitable for mass printing.
As a book conservator, dealing with books printed in blood would present some additional challenges. Depending on what else was added to it to make it suitable for printing could make it damage the paper it was printed on (this is actually a big problem with some printing inks used in history). And if I needed to do restoration work, would I need to find blood of the same type, in order to match the original ink?
* * *
Usually about this point in such speculation, I start to wonder just what in the hell got me thinking about these things in the first place. What was my subconscious chewing on?
I could perhaps tie it to the odd little movie we watched last night.
Or that my wife had a close call last week. There wasn’t a lot of blood per se, but the symbolism is kinda hard to ignore.
Both good candidates. Both likely elements.
But in the end I decided that it was just that I’ve been thinking a lot about writing. About printing. About bookbinding.
All those things are measures of my life. In some very real sense, they *are* small, tangible pieces of my life.
Not unlike blood, I suppose.
The Kindle edition of Communion of Dreams will be free all day tomorrow. And remember, if you would like a chance to win a full-leather, hand-bound copy of the special edition, you need to write a review on Amazon and post a link in the original blog entry about the drawing. That’s a $250 – $350 value.
Even more, it’s part of my life.
Maybe it will be a part of yours.
Jim Downey
Filed under: Art, Book Conservation, Marketing, Publishing, Science Fiction, tech | Tags: art, blogging, bookbinding, Communion of Dreams, direct publishing, jim downey, Science Fiction, technology
I got to thinking about all the steps/stages involved in doing the binding of the handbound editions of Communion of Dreams. Here’s a step by step description (with some images below) of the process of doing the cloth hardcover books:
- Gather the sections from the printed stacks.
- Fold each section.
- Collate the sections into books.
- Punch holes through the center of each section for sewing.
- Sew up the text blocks.
- Paste up the spine of each text block, allow to dry under mild weight.
- Trim each textblock to size: head, tail, fore-edge.
- Paste up each text block again; determine size for, cut, and add endbands.
- Determine size for, cut, then paste up and apply spine liners, allow to dry.
- Determine size for and cut bookboard for the covers: front cover, rear cover, spine.
- Determine size of necessary cover cloth, cut from roll goods.
- Layout and mark up inside of cover cloth for bookboard positions.
- Paste up and mount each piece of bookboard, nip in nipping press, allow to dry.
- Cut corners on cover cloth.
- Paste up and turn in edges & corners, nip in nipping press, allow to dry. This is now called the “cloth case”.
- Determine size and cut cover image for mounting to cloth cases.
- Position and mount cover images to cases, nip in nipping press, allow to dry.
- Trim back first paste-down sheet on front and back of each text block.
- Position text block in case, paste up sewing tapes and front half paste-down sheet, nip in nipping press.
- Repeat for rear sewing tapes and half paste-down sheet.
- Paste up front full paste-down sheet, nip in nipping press.
- Repeat for rear full paste-down sheet.
- Dry under mild weight.
Simple, right? 😉
Well, it is compared to what is involved in doing the leather-covered edition. I might spend some time doing a video version of that. We’ll see.
Oh, yeah — if you’d like to have your own hand-bound copy in either cloth or leather, full information on the limited edition is here.
Jim Downey
Sheets gathered & folded into sections.
Sections punched for sewing.
Starting the sewing onto linen tapes.
Bottom of the sewn text block trimmed off in the guillotine.
Drying time.
Marked up cover stock.
Bookboard mounted.
Corners cut, ready to turn in.
Back cover image positioned for mounting.
Sewing tapes and half sheet pasted out and pressed.
Second paste down sheet prepared and ready to press.
Finished product.
Communion Of Dreams 